Morning Jumpstart Macro View 22/09/21


  • SPI200 (Sept) overnight futures down 14 pts to 7225
  • SP500 down 3.54 pts to 4354.19
  • NASDAQ Composite up 32.50 pts to 14746.40
  • Dow Jones down 50.63 pts to 33919.84
  • FTSE100 up 77.07 pts to 6980.98
  • DAX30 up 216.47 pts to 15348.53
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $11.20 to $1775.00 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0045 to $4.1100 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Oct) up $0.27 to $70.56 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.22 pts to 218.32
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7230
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1728
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3662
  • USDJPY trading at 109.2300
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.046 to 93.210

US indexes managed to fend off another negative session as traders look ahead to the FOMC statement tonight although the early bullish enthusiasm faded into the close. Traders held in a ‘wait-and-see’ mode as neither bulls or bears were ready to commit to a direction. Evergrande contagion is largely a non-issue for now as investors realise that the US Fed buys 10 times the amount in bonds each month than Evergrande has in international debt. is whether China makes a example of them and whether their housing market takes a hit. More importantly is the Feds statement tonight and any hint of a plan for tapering and taking away the bulls ‘reason for being’. The US economy remains strong but slowing so while shares continue to be the only place for yield, many are asking whether the rally can really keep going which is making many investors a little nervous. The DOW closed down 0.15% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.08% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.22% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes fought back from the previous session weakness as the DAX rallied 1.43% and the FTSE 1.12% while the broader market STOXX50 rallied 1.33%. Bargain hunters soaked up some cheap shares as concerns for Contagion were brushed aside and it was business as usual for ‘buy-the-dip’ traders.

The USD Index largely straddled the unchanged mark as price moved above and below the previous close. Price is holding below major resistance at 93.400 and we expect it to be again contained today ahead of FOMC which will bring in some volatility…as either the bulls or bears who built positions leading into the statement will get squeezed. The EURUSD was also choppy and ended around the same level as it began the Asian session. Price continues to hold up off the 1.1700 support zone so I expect that any clear movement from here will depend on FOMC tonight. The GBPUSD also took a break from trading overnight as price held around the previous sessions lows. Because the Pound is the Pound, we expect to see a flush of lows through 1.3638 before any rally can get underway. The AUDUSD was a bit more of a chop-fest as bulls were dragged in through the Asian and European sessions on the back of share market strength…only to get squeezed back out of the action on a move down. Price ended the session down on minor support around 0.7222. The USDJPY continued to take a hit as price initially rallied before taking out the previous sessions lows and is now working its way down into support around 109.000. Japans Monetary Policy Statement today may see some volatility into the pair to clear out some bears.

SPOT GOLD had a ‘happy session’ as buyers managed to push up through 1767 and extend into resistance at 1780 before short term bulls booked some gains. Expecting to see Gold Bulls kept in check today and price to hold below the 1780…but maybe after a flush to keep sellers on their toes. Crude Oil was a seesaw session as price flushed down…then up…then down…and up again as traders heatedly debated global consumption and demand. Price flushed the 68.5 level but was quickly bought back up but I do expect that there will be more buyers squeezed out of the action prior to another move up. Copper continues to be a market for excitement…well not if you are a bull… as price remained under pressure. I still expect that more buyers will be cleared out on a push into 3.9595 so will be watching for the 4.1755 level to hold price down.

Cryptocurrencies continue to come under pressure as ‘twitter bulls’ go quiet and online bullish targets are crushed….for now. Price action is now testing crypto gurus commitment and emotions and may have more downside to go yet. Bitcoin is trading at $40963.9 down 5.46% while Ethereum is at $2770.07 down 7.36% and Ripple is at $0.8847 down 4.30%.

The ASX200 had a surprisingly good open yesterday and managed to wipe off any negativity to rally into the close. The Index ended the day up 25.6 points to 7273.8 as bargain hunters controlled the session. Support around 7200 on the ASX200 continues to hold so many will be watching closely to see if Mondays action was just a good old fashion flush or not. Gains in the Energy, IT and Consumer Discretionary sectors helped end the action in the green. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 840 to 564 and 391 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to down 10 points as the SPI200 held onto the days gains in overnight trade.


AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks 12pm

JPY Monetary Policy Statement, Policy Rate and Press Conference Tentative

USD Existing Home Sales 12am

USD Crude Oil Inventories 12:30am

USD FOMC Statement and Fed Funds Rate 4am

USD FOMC Press Conference 4:30am


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