Morning Jumpstart Macro View 23/09/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 14 pts to 7290
  • SP500 up 41.45 pts to 4395.64
  • NASDAQ Composite up 150.45 pts to 14896.85
  • Dow Jones up 338.48 pts to 34258.32
  • FTSE100 up 102.39 pts to 7083.37
  • DAX30 up 158.21 pts to 15506.74
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) down $9.80 to $1768.40 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0975 to $4.2235 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) up $1.74 to $72.23 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 3.47 pts to 221.79
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7239
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1691
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3622
  • USDJPY trading at 109.7900
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.277 to 93.477

US indexes opened strong before edging lower ahead of the FOMC statement when prices kicked back up to end well in the green. Positive news on Evergrande gave bulls some confidence on the open (they had negotiated a deal with bondholders to settle interest payments on a domestic bond) while I expect that many were feeling it was time for the Fed to announce tapering and were caught short and squeezed out of the action. Powell held off on any commitment to a timeline and gave the green light to bulls for now to continue as they were. The Fed said (in a round a out way) that they ‘will start to taper soon…but we will not tell you when and how much….and also expect rates to rise in 2022 earlier than expected’. Expect that the news may keep a lid on a lot of bulls although prices could easily drift back up to highs before the next monthly FOMC instalment. The DOW closed up 1.00% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.95% and the Nasdaq closed up 1.02% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes did not waste any time thinking of the recent selloff as bulls marched prices higher right from the open. The FTSE, DAX and broader Stoxx50 were in constant buy mode as prices pushing higher into the close after positive news on Evergrande. Many traders may be re-establishing long positions after the big flush lower knowing that the US still has not given a tapering timeline. Economic news out tonight may shed more light on the European situation and what may be on the cards for local tapering.

The USD Index was largely in a sideways range bound session prior to the FOMC statement when buyers spiked price higher into resistance around 93.400. Bulls are getting that itching feeling that tapering and rate rises are just around the corner so will be pressuring the USD higher. Highs at 93.726 from late August will be the next target on the upside then 94.700 highs from September last year. The EURUSD obviously took a hit after the Statement and USD rally although price stood its ground into support around 1.1700. Expecting to see more pressure lower in the near term with bears targeting 1.1600 as USD bulls edge price higher. The GBPUSD flushed lower into the US close as major support (1.3570 to 1.3650) continues to hold. Traders will be awaiting the BOE Monetary Policy news later tonight before committing to either direction. The AUDUSD was a bit of a headache for traders as price initially spiked higher on the FOMC news before coming straight back down to where it started. A stronger USD may be a burden for commodity prices therefore weighing on the AUDUSD so we may see more pressure today and a break below 0.7220. The USDJPY was all one way action from the start of the Asian session until the close of the US. Price was buoyed by the USD rally so we expect to see more bulls come out to play after a major double bottom held around 109.122.

SPOT GOLD may be in some trouble in the short term if the USD continues higher and I expect that many will be feeling the same after price rejecting a break above 1782. The move flushed out some sellers targeting stop losses above the level before dropping $15 into the close. Expecting to see a move down to test into 1752 in coming sessions. Crude Oil inventories came out weaker than previous but inline with expectations so Oil had no choice but to rally…?? and continue the recent trend higher. The push up through 71.90 may trigger more buyers into action for a run to test 73.00 highs and then potentially into 74. Copper ramped up through Asian trade to squeeze out a lot of sellers, and held the gains into the US close. I expect that price will be weighed down if the USD continues to push higher so we may expect to see more sellers edge into the action if price holds below 4.2765.

Cryptocurrencies regained some confidence as bulls dived back into the action after the recent selloff. Traders started to find support once share markets started to rally as the FED gain them the green light. Bitcoin is currently trading at $43213.3 up 4.32% while Ethereum is at $3031.92 up 7.31% and Ripple is at $0.99479 up 10.23%.

The ASX200 had another positive session yesterday after clearing out some buyers on the open before rallying into the close. The Index ended up 23.1 points to 7296.9 as gains in the Resources, Energy and Metals and Mining sectors did the bulk of the heavy lifting and led shares higher. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 794 to 597 and 393 ended unchanged. Japan is closed today while the Hang Seng is back open and will be ready for action.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 10 points although I expect the ASX bulls to be on the front foot from the open after the solid US performance.


JPY Bank Holiday All Day

EUR French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 5:15pm

CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment 5:30pm

EUR German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 5:30pm

GBP Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 6.30pm

GBP Asset Purchase Facility and Monetary Policy Summary 9pm

USD Unemployment Claims 10:30pm

USD Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI 11:45pm


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