Morning Jumpstart Macro View 24/09/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 8 pts to 7356
  • SP500 up 53.34 pts to 4448.98
  • NASDAQ Composite up 155.40 pts to 15052.25
  • Dow Jones up 506.50 pts to 34764.82
  • FTSE100 down 5.02 pts to 7078.35
  • DAX30 up 137.23 pts to 15643.97
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) down $36.00 to $1742.80 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0205 to $4.2315 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) up $1.07 to $73.30 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 2.20 pts to 223.99
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7295
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1739
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3724
  • USDJPY trading at 110.3100
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.360 to 93.100

US indexes had another big session to end well in the green as traders forget all about the recent selloff. Beijing announced that they will inject fresh cash into its financial system ahead of an $83.5 million bond coupon due by Evergrande. The news was interpreted to say there was no likelihood of contagion in global markets…just a potentially the largest ever corporate default. Commodity currencies were generally higher across the board while US 10-year bond yields jumped as traders exited the safe haven trade and focus again on tapering and rate rises. Powell will again link the timing of tapering to jobs growth in his speech later tonight….and if unemployment data shows anything, hitting the Feds employment targets may still be away off hence a tapering deadline remains elusive. The DOW closed up 1.48% while the broader SP500 ended up 1.21% and the Nasdaq closed up 1.04% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were mixed with the BOE statement weighing on the FTSE while the DAX ran hot again to return to where it was prior to the selloff. The BOE said that two policymakers had voted for an early end to government bond buying leaving the markets re-adjusting the outlook for interest rate rises bringing expectations forward to March next year. On a separate note, the Turkish Lira plummeted after a surprise rate cut of 100% even as inflation hits 19.25%….their Fed Reserve may have hit the wrong button by the look of it.

The USD Index took a hit as some safe haven buyers leaked out of the action and unemployment data had traders re-assessing long positions. The Dollar fell away from 94.400 being sold lower all day but still remains above support at 92.850. With bond yields rallying, expect that there may be support coming in from bulls on tapering expectations although Powell may throw a spanner in the works tonight. The EURUSD worked its way off support thanks to the dollar move lower. Price continues to hold above a key support zone around 1.1700 but is also being held down at 1.1905 on the daily charts which is key for bears. In the short term, bulls will be watching the 1.1750 zone to see if it holds or breaks today. The GBPUSD rocketed higher as Pound bulls factored in rate rises sooner rather than later. I expect to see price edge lower to clear out some buyers but then will be watching for a higher low to build for another leg up. The AUDUSD held a retest of the 0.7220 level to run higher into the close of the US session being supported by the weakness into the USD and Evergrande news. Like the Pound, expecting to see some heat come out of the action as some recent buyers are worked out of positions and back on the sidelines. The USDJPY was all one way action as price kicked higher into resistance around 110.400. Price is extended and may see some buyers lock in some gains although bulls may still want to target stops today above 110.420.

SPOT GOLD bulls and gold bugs are this morning rocking back and forward begging for the ‘chop to stop’. Price moved straight down into the 1750 area a lot quicker than I expected as safe haven and inflation bulls ran for cover. If the action can not get back above the 1750 area, expecting to see more downside to 1721. Crude Oil moved higher as traders continue to focus on rising demand (and hope that OPEC does not raise production). Price ran higher through 73.00 and now has it sights set on the 74.00 zone. Copper traders did not know which way to look as the fall in the USD failed to drag in buyers and saw sellers stay on the sidelines. Price held up off 4.1955 and was capped into 4.2780 so is range bound for now until one of the levels is broken to trigger traders into action.

Cryptocurrencies again followed the fortunes and sentiment of the share markets as bulls continued to look to the heavens. Bitcoin is currently trading at $44675.6 up 3.29% while Ethereum is at $3143.29 up 3.57% and Ripple is at $0.98853 down 0.57%.

The ASX200 rallied hard from the open yesterday as bulls continued to brush aside the recent selloff and soak up more ‘cheap’ stock. The index ended the session up 73.3 points to 7370.2 with the key 7200 level holding in tact. The big movers were the IT, Energy and Utilities sectors while expect some pain today in the Gold sector after the precious metal in Aussie terms took a beating overnight. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 988 to 419 and 359 ended unchanged. The Nikkei ended lower as some heat continued to come out of the recent rally from August while the Hang Seng ended with gains.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 10 points although we may expect bulls to again play catch up with the overnight US markets and rally from the open.


JPY National Core CPI 9:30am

JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 10:30am

EUR German ifo Business Climate 11pm

GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks 11pm

USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks 12am

USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks 9pm


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