Morning Jumpstart Macro View 27/09/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 2 pts to 7304
  • SP500 up 6.50 pts to 4455.48
  • NASDAQ Composite down 4.54 pts to 15047.70
  • Dow Jones up 33.18 pts to 34798.00
  • FTSE100 down 26.87 pts to 7051.48
  • DAX30 down 112.22 pts to 15531.75
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $1.90 to $1751.70 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0507 to $4.2817 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) up $0.68 to $73.98 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.32 pts to 225.31
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7259
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1720
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3664
  • USDJPY trading at 110.7000
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.240 to 93.270

US indexes were mixed Friday with the DOW and broader market SP500 grinding out minor gains while the Nasdaq moved lower. Traders continued to battle with expectations for tapering as US bond yields continue to inch higher pushing bond prices lower. With many Global Fed Reserve (ECB, BOE and US Fed) members speaking tonight…I can not help but feel we are getting prepped for tapering news soon. Evergrande continues to be in the news but I do not expect that markets are taking a lot of notice now as they focus on much bigger issues…only interesting to foreign investors at this stage and any global contagion affects have been brushed aside much to the disgust of news services trying to beat that drum. The DOW closed up 0.10% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.15% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.03% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were weaker as Germany prepared for elections. The DAX and the FTSE both traded in a narrow range as traders were happy to consolidate the recent gains after the bounce back from the Evergrande selloff. There remains lingering fears over the unknown in China and Beijing policy which kept buyers out of the market into the weekend.

The USD Index found support around 93.00 and again pushed up into resistance around 93.400. The USD is finding buyers on the back of tapering expectations and interest rate hikes down the track and also as the US economy out performs other major economies. I expect that bulls will continue to provide support as the Dollar remains in favour with FX traders, and look to break up through 93.400 in coming sessions. The EURUSD was capped at 1.1750 with sellers keeping the lid on any rally. Price did find some buyers again into the 1.1700 support zone and I expect that buyers will hold the level today into the European session or until Fed Reserve officials have spoken tonight. The GBPUSD fell as recent bulls were squeezed back out of longs that were entered after BOE’s statement on interest rates and tapering a few days ago. Price has found some buyers a few times around 1.3660 to provide support intraday so this level will be key for me today to see if it triggers more buyers back into the action. The AUDUSD also came under pressure Friday as price action moved back down into support around 0.7225 to end just above the level at the US close. The 0.7225 level remains key for me in the short term to see if more buyers are happy to provide support and defend the level for a move higher. The USDJPY was all one way again with bulls remaining well in control which clearly points to expectations for a higher USD and also a lack of safe haven YEN buying. As expected, stops were targeted above the 110.400 level and potentially again today above the 110.800 zone.

SPOT GOLD remains under pressure and will do as long as 1756 holds the current leg down. Price is set to break below the 1750 level to clear out more buyers and will have a tough time if the USD rallies today. If buyers are scarce today, I expect to see an extension down into 1720 in coming sessions. Crude Oil held below resistance around 74.10 Friday but has spiked up through the level today. A test into major resistance around 75.50/76 is now on the cards as expectations for higher demand continue to provide support although China issues may throw a spanner in the works in the near term. Copper found some buyers to push price up through 4.2770 resistance and looks set to extend on those gains today unless a rally in the USD caps any bullish action.

Cryptocurrencies fought back from Fridays selloff to make back most of the losses and fend off another selloff over the weekend. Bitcoin is currently trading at $43848.50 up 2.71% while Ethereum is at $3109.59 up 6.73% and Ripple is at $0.95558 up 1.79%.

The ASX200 ended the session down Friday by 27.60 points to 7342.60. It was a grind lower from the open as many traders were happy to lock in some gains going into the weekend and the AFL Grand Final…where Melbourne were victorious. Stocks in the Gold, Metals and Mining and Materials sectors were the biggest loosers while Energy ended higher. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 731 to 624 and 415 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 5 points after a lacklustre session Friday night on the SPI200.


EUR German Buba Monthly Report Tentative

EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 9:45am

USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks 10pm

USD Durable Goods Orders Data 10:30pm

USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks 2am

USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 2:15am

GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks 4am


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