Morning Jumpstart Macro View 1/10/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 114 pts to 7179
  • SP500 down 51.92 pts to 4307.54
  • NASDAQ Composite down 63.86 pts to 14445.58
  • Dow Jones down 546.80 pts to 33843.92
  • FTSE100 down 21.74 pts to 7086.42
  • DAX30 down 104.58 pts to 15260.69
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $34.60 to $1757.50 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0935 to $4.1055 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) up $0.20 to $75.03 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.77 pts to 228.92
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7225
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1583
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3474
  • USDJPY trading at 111.2900
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.080 to 94.273

US indexes saw some end of month and quarter selling pressure prices lower. Bears were out in force locking away quarterly gains (although minor) as traders brushed aside news of a stopgap spending bill approval in Senate to keep the Government running. The government shutdown has weighed on the market the previous few sessions but the news could not stem the selling. Unemployment numbers were also higher than expected for the third straight week which pressured the market and will put more emphasis on next weeks US Payroll numbers. US 10-year Bond prices moved higher as yields fell after the unemployment release but also due to some end of quarter ‘fund adjustments and rebalancing’. The rally should have given the stock market some support The DOW closed down 1.59% while the broader SP500 ended down 1.19% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.44% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes also moved lower as declines in travel and leisure limited gains into miners and pressured prices lower. End of quarter window dressing saw traders lock in minor losses after a volatile September on the back of concerns over a slowing global economy and inflation. Throw into the mix a growing energy crisis in some Asian and European countries, specifically China and the UK, then traders are happy to see a new month.

The USD Index saw some minor selling as Bonds rallied and unemployment data brought into question tapering again. Price flushed into highs prior to the data release when sellers jumped into the action and pushed the dollar lower. If price continues to consolidate around current levels, then we expect to see continuation higher into 94.600. The EURUSD continued to show weakness and moved lower to hold below the major support zone around 1.1600. Bulls will need to push price back up through the 1.1600 level to trigger a short squeeze and move price up. If the level holds, then expect further weight on the Euro and extension into new lows. The GBPUSD managed to fight back from the previous sessions weakness as the US failed to kick higher. The move looks more like a pullback than strength which indicates more weakness to come and may point to a higher USD. Expecting to see bulls capped today price to extend on the trend down in coming sessions. The AUDUSD found some love to rally back into the 0.7225 zone. Its seems that the intent was to squeeze out some sellers as buyers potentially expect further weakness into the USD. If the 0.7250 zone holds today, then expecting a flush lower. The USDJPY took a big hit mid European session to squeeze out some late buyers. Price reacted up off minor support around 111.200 which we expect to see broken today on a stop loss hunt.

SPOT GOLD had a big session as bulls finally came out to play. Bulls and algos were triggered into action around the 9pm mark as the USD fell and other currencies reacted higher. The sudden move caught many bears off guard as stop losses were triggered and fuelled the move up. Price reacted down off 1761 which may be the line into the sand today holding the longer term trend down. Crude Oil was choppy as a technical break lower through support was met with a sharp spike back up after news that China is prepared to buy more oil and other energy supplies to meet growing demand. Key levels are down at 7365 and up at 75.75. Copper took a big hit in the European session to extend on the recent losses and push below the 4.1000 level as expected. Price did recover some of the losses in the US session as the USD found some selling. If sellers start to defend the 4.1175 zone then the move down may get uglier.

Cryptocurrencies rallied during the Asian market session and managed to hold onto the gains into the US close even under the weight of the end of quarter share market selloff. Bitcoin is currently trading at $43619.20 up 5.77% while Ethereum is at $2997.13 up 6.20% and Ripple is at $0.94899 up 3.51%.

The ASX200 ended the month and quarter with a bang as no doubt porfolios and funds were doing some window dressing. The index ended the session up 135.5 points to 7332.2 with all sectors having a good day. Leading the charge were shares in the Consumer Staples, Materials and Resources sectors while Gold managed to hold its ground. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 862 to 527 and 385 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 110 points after the SPI200 was hit hard overnight giving up all the gains from the day session plus more.


CNY Bank Holiday All Day

EUR German Retail Sales 4pm

EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 5:55pm

CAD GDP 10:30pm

USD Core PCE Price Index 10:30pm

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI and Revised Consumer Sentiment 12am


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