Morning Jumpstart Macro View 4/10/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 52 pts to 7180
  • SP500 up 49.50 pts to 4357.04
  • NASDAQ Composite up 118.12 pts to 14566.70
  • Dow Jones up 482.54 pts to 34,326.46
  • FTSE100 down 59.34 pts to 7027.07
  • DAX30 down 104.25 pts to 15156.44
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $4.30 to $1761.30 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.1180 to $4.2070 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) up $0.85 to $75.88 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.46 pts to 230.38
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7258
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1596
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3546
  • USDJPY trading at 111.0500
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.150 to 94.090

US indexes were helped higher from the open as US 10-year bond yields eased lower off recent highs. Debt default concerns from the US government were largely brushed aside as many expect that politicians will eventually get their collective act together and agree to raise the debt ceiling to avert a crisis…as they have done many times previously. Data out showed that the consumer is still strong and spending which supported a positive open. Trader focus will turn to payrolls on Friday which may see contained trading in coming sessions as bulls and bears continue to argue over inflation and tapering. The DOW closed up 1.43% while the broader SP500 ended up 1.15% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.82% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were weighed down by inflation concerns after CPI and factory activity data highlighted supply chain problems and expectations for continued elevated prices. The ECB will now be under further pressure to raise rates or at least will have to show their hand soon on tapering. The DAX and FTSE opened lower and held the losses into the close even as the US rallied from the open.

The USD Index eased lower of recent highs as buyers took a breather and locked in some gains on the back of the rally into US bonds which weighed on prices. Still, many view the decline as temporary and will be looking to Fridays employment data release for a robust number and therefore further support. If the Dollar starts to find some buyers step back into the action then expect to see another push up towards the 94.600 zone. The EURUSD did lift off lows on the back of USD weakness but did not show the strength that bulls would have hoped to see. The rally stalled at 1.1607 and fell away into the US close as the Euro was weighed down by inflationary data. Expecting to see price hold below the 1.1607 level today as bulls were not convincing Friday….again it will depend on the USD action. The GBPUSD did find some early weakness until bulls stepped back in at the start of the European session to ramp the Pound higher. Seems like bulls were anticipating better Manufacturing data and got the jump on a rally. In hindsight the early move down was a flush of buyers before the ramp which may continue today if the USD heads lower. If not then buyers will be squeezed again. The AUDUSD rallied along with other commodity based currencies as the USD edged lower. Price pushed up through minor highs around 0.7263 before stalling which may suggest the move up was to clear out some buyers prior to another push lower. If sellers hold below 0.7275 then expecting to see a grind down. The USDJPY continued to pressure buyers and squeeze lower as the USD eases. Expecting to see an extension down into 110.700 to flush out more bulls but do expect that downside will be contained as the USD searches for support.

SPOT GOLD managed to hold onto the gains from the previous session to give bulls a smile into the weekend. Price found some buying support around 1750 but again rejected a push up into 1762. Bulls will want to clear 1764 to trigger more buyers into action and a bigger squeeze on longer term sellers. If price holds below today, then expecting to see a grind down. Crude Oil saw much of the same action Friday as the previous session with an early move lower met with strong buying to push price back up into the US close. Price again moved into the 76 area before buyers took their foot of the gas and price saw a minor retrace into the close. Expecting to see dips supported by continued expectations of China demand while longer term sellers hold price down into 77 for now. Copper had a good session as bulls took the opportunity to ramp price higher on USD weakness. Technically, price is extended in the short term and may see some profit taking from buyers with minor resistance coming in around current levels at 4.2085. Expecting to see price either flush the level and then retrace on profit taking and USD strength, or extend on the rally into 4.2815.

Cryptocurrencies had a rather flat weekend but not after being ramped higher Friday as bulls got excited. Major crypto pairs are showing some strength after breaking out to the upside off some solid bases and an accumulation phase. Bitcoin is currently trading at $47732.1 down 0.83% while Ethereum is at $3392.05 down 1.59% and Ripple is at $1.04408 down 1.25%.

The ASX200 gave back Friday the gains it made Thursday as the index ended the day down 146.7 points. It seems that there was no follow through on Thursdays end of quarter window dressing and bulls went into hibernation. Shares in the Financial, Consumer Discretionary and Metals and Mining sectors were the hardest hit while Gold ended up 1.11% for the day. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 845 to 512 and 410 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 50 points thanks to a strong rally on the SPI200 into the US close.


AUD Bank Holiday (ASX Open) All Day

AUD MI Inflation Guage 11am

EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 6pm

ALL OPEC Meetings All Day

USD Factory Orders 1am


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