Morning Jumpstart Macro View 7/10/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 33 pts to 7210
  • SP500 up 17.83 pts to 4363.55
  • NASDAQ Composite up 68.08 pts to 14501.91
  • Dow Jones up 102.32 pts to 34,416.99
  • FTSE100 down 81.23 pts to 6995.87
  • DAX30 down 221.16 pts to 14973.33
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $3.50 to $1764.40 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0177 to $4.1748 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) down $1.91 to $77.02 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 3.57 pts to 232.23
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7276
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1558
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3587
  • USDJPY trading at 111.4100
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.435 to 94.215

US indexes brushed aside Asian and European market weakness to ramp higher into the close. Key indexes once again disappoint the bears and find buying support into a negative open. Politicians continue to enjoy the limelight of the debt ceiling news but are getting closer to the inevitable result of lifting the limit…which is shown in the market action. Employment data came in stronger than expected which sets up for an interesting Friday Payroll number. Stronger than expected may weigh on the market as it points to tapering and longer term higher costs of debt….a weaker number will more that likely mean business as usual for bulls. Tech shares were supported by a rally into the 10-year bond and a fall in the yield as we expect prices to be held in check into the Friday employment release. The Energy crisis continues to be splashed over news headlines and also supports the case for higher inflation. Russia is a key producer of natural gas and seems to be happy with the price spike and may be fuelling the ramp by storing gas rather than increasing supply to needy countries…which will only fan the flames of concern as the northern hemisphere entering winter. The DOW closed up 0.30% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.41% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.47% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were hit with inflation concerns and as key data (German factory orders and European Retail sales) came in below expectations attributed to supply chain issues. The energy crisis is expected to get worse before it gets better as higher inflation capped the fall in banks after a rate hike in New Zealand triggered fears that Europe and the US will be next.

The USD Index moved higher in Asian and European trade on some safe haven buying but later retreated into the US close. Price continues to look strong and set to push higher no doubt being supported by expectations for a strong jobs number Friday. If price holds above the 94.000 area today, expecting to see a push towards 94.600. The EURUSD is not looking too happy as the Dollar rally pushed the Euro through previous lows at 1.1561. We may see stubborn bulls try to grind price higher today but do expect that they will run into more selling and price to hold a lower higher to continue its move lower. The GBPUSD found some selling pressure into the European open which wiped off the previous sessions gains. Price action looks set to continue lower if it holds 1.3586 level and breaks below 1.3550. The AUDUSD was caught in two minds between heading lower and a rally. Price action initially broke below support at the start of the European session as the DAX fell apart and was later saved as US shares rallied. If price builds a lower high below 0.7295, expect that sellers will ramp up the pressure. The USDJPY found some safe haven YEN buying at the start of the European session and offset the USD rally. Price pushed back into the 111.200 area before finding buyers so watching to see if this level can hold today for a squeeze on overnight sellers.

SPOT GOLD continues to stagger around like a drunkard as price action took out the previous sessions lows before ramping right back up into the US close. Price seems to be getting supported by bulls on dips who may have 1780 as the next target. Aussie gold is a controlled grind lower which suggests that bulls are providing support and will be looking for a break of 2445 to lead to another leg up….which will support local gold miners. Crude Oil initially popped its head higher before getting whacked back down which will be attributed to some profit taking from recent buyers through daily resistance. With the energy issues some countries are having, oil is not expected to stay here for long and should see buyers again provide support. Copper saw a big ramp higher during the European session which did not stick but does point to selling pressure easing. If price can hold above the 4.1250 area, then we may see the start of a squeeze on sellers and push back up into 4.2800.

Cryptocurrencies are determined to push higher being led again by Bitcoin which is on a charge. Bitcoin broke up through highs at 53150 at the start of the US session and bulls are looking now to a new bull run as the hype again ramps up. Bitcoin is currently trading at $55098.30 up 7.05% while Ethereum is at $3575.22 up 1.41% and Ripple is at $1.07799 up 0.80%.

The ASX200 opened okay yesterday before heading south for the session right up to the closing bell. The index ended the day down 41.9 points to 7206.5 with shares in the Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Consumer Staples sector dragging the ASX lower. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing by 720 to 633 and 398 ended unchanged. The Nikkei and Hang Seng were both lower being weighed down by inflation concerns thanks to the increasing costs of energy.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 30 points after the US rally pulled the SPI200 out of a slump.


CNY Bank Holiday

EUR German Industrial Production 5pm

EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts 10:30pm

USD Unemployment Claims 11:30pm

CAD BOC Gov Macklem Speaks 3am


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