Morning Jumpstart Macro View 11/10/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 4 pts to 7273
  • SP500 down 8.42 pts to 4391.34
  • NASDAQ Composite down 74.48 pts to 14579.54
  • Dow Jones down 8.69 pts to 34,746.25
  • FTSE100 up 17.51 pts to 7095.55
  • DAX30 down 44.73 pts to 15206.13
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) down $2.00 to $1757.20 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0.362 to $4.2797 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Nov) up $1.05 to $79.35 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.08 pts to 235.42
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7309
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1569
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3615
  • USDJPY trading at 112.2400
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.106 to 94.115

US indexes edged lower Friday in a lacklustre session to end the week. Employment data out showed weaker jobs growth that expected although the unemployment rate fell more than expected leaving tapering bulls with something to think about. Bond prices initially spiked before heading south for the session as yields climbed keeping price on a downward trend. Traders believe that the Fed remains on track for tapering as early as November even after the disappointing number as hiring continues to be an issue and a labour shortage could be one reason for the weaker number rather than a lack of jobs. Some of the drop was also attributed to vaccine requirements for some jobs. Tech and other high growth shares came under the most pressure while energy and financials gained. The DOW closed down 0.903% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.19% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.51% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were mixed with the FTSE ending higher while the DAX moved lower finding some selling after the US employment data release. The DAX was also weighed down by weaker than expected trade data while higher oil prices again added to the inflation narrative to weigh on stock prices.

The USD Index was pressured lower from the start of the European session to target stops below 94080. Price spiked lower over the mixed employment data but did find support into the US close showing expectations for more strength to come. With the mixed number, some buyers were squeezed out of the action but with the Fed is expected to announce a tapering plan when they meet at the start of November so expecting to see buyers creep back into the action. The EURUSD reacted as expected on the USD moves with price edging higher. Spikes into the 1.1580 area were contained by sellers which may suggest that there is more downside expected in coming sessions to keep the trend down intact. The GBPUSD spiked into recent highs around 1.3646 over the US data release and saw rejection from sellers to push lower into the close. The higher inflation expectations continue to weigh and see traders factor in a BOE rate rise which is providing some support. If the Pound breaks below the 1.3600 level today, expect to see a short term stop hunt and price flush lower. The AUDUSD initially moved lower off the 0.7320 resistance zone to clear out buyers ahead of the employment data when price then spiked to flush back up through the level. Price was later pushed back down into the US close which suggests that the 0.7320 level may be a line on the sand for bears. The USDJPY ramped up into new short term highs after the data release showed clear expectations for more USD strength to come. Price is extended so may need to clear out some buyers today on a pullback before finding some support for another leg up.

SPOT GOLD did its usual tricks and remained choppy and lacking any clear direction. The release of payrolls saw algos jump into action and price spike $20 before falling straight back down to where it started. The move cleared out a lot of sellers so it will be interesting to see if price can find any buying support in coming days. Crude Oil continued to find support and chug higher keeping pressure on inflation concerns. Bulls will be looking to hold minor support at 78.70 today and keep the bullish ball rolling. Copper was initially finding some selling pressure leading into the employment release but then was quick to spike back into the resistance zone around 4.2815. The action today is expected to hold below 4.2815 but will be watching the moves in the USD closely.

Cryptocurrencies continued to he contained over the weekend moving sideways and are now finding some selling pressure now to start the new week on the back foot. Bitcoin is currently trading at $54758.00 up 0.19% while Ethereum is at $3455.09 down 3.50% and Ripple is at $1.14542 down 1.64%.

The ASX200 ended the week with some solid gains but only after a rocky start to the session. The Index ended the day up 63.40 points to 7320.10 as the Metals and Mining, Resources and Materials sectors led the action higher. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 861 to 519 and 363 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 5 points after a lacklustre US session where the SPI200 flatlined into the close.


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