Morning Jumpstart Macro View 29/10/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 18 pts to 7422
  • SP500 up 44.74 pts to 4596.42
  • NASDAQ Composite up 212.28 pts to 15448.12
  • Dow Jones up 239.79 pts to 35730.48
  • FTSE100 down 3.80 pts to 7249.47
  • DAX30 down 9.48 pts to 15696.33
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $1.80 to $1800.60 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0395 to $4.4290 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) up $0.45 to $83.11 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 0.48 pts to 238.47
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7543
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1682
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3792
  • USDJPY trading at 113.5700
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.446 to 93.352

US indexes once again brushed aside previous sessions weakness and ramped higher. The Nasdaq closed up in new all time highs and dragged the SP500 along for the ride while the DOW reversed previous sessions losses and also ended strong. Again the market was buoyed by a few tech giants namely Tesla, Apple and Amazon. Apple and Amazon reported after the bell and both missed Wall Street expectations and were punished for it in after hours trading. Still, they are showing growth and keep moving in the right direction supporting the rest of the market. Other notable earnings beats were Caterpillar and Ford which both came out on top. Unemployment claims came out better than expected sending bond yields higher. The DOW closed up 0.68% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.98% and the Nasdaq closed up 1.39% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes ended relatively flat but expect the DAX and FTSE play catchup with the US tonight. The ECB continued to keep its massive stimulus taps open and maintained its view that the recent spike in inflation would be temporary…sticking to the global Fed reserve rhetoric.

The USD Index took a hit after the ECB statement release as the Euro rallied. Many short term sellers were caught off side expecting inflation to be a problem and had to close when the ECB told them it wasn’t. The Dollar pressed straight below the 93.700 minor support level and then through the 93.500 zone. Traders will now expect that the US Fed Reserve will follow suit leaving the free money taps running for longer than expected. As a note, the USD on the daily timeframe is in ‘pullback’ mode rather than ‘selloff’ which would suggest that traders still expect to see strength and buying back into the USD. The EURUSD spiked up and through 1.1625 to trigger a run on stop losses and ramp price higher. The ECB news means that the Fed officials will not be swayed from their path and the support will continue for now. That may bring the Euro back into the frame for FX traders as inflation pressures increase giving an expected future yield advantage relative to the USD…at least until the US admits they have an inflation issue. The GBPUSD benefitted from the USD selloff as price ramped up through 1.3780. Watching the level today to see how buyers react to a retest of 1.3780 to see if we can expect further upside. The AUDUSD also kicked on higher after flushing buyers out of the action on an earlier move lower. Price extended up through 0.7534 to drag in more buyers so, like the Pound, watching the reaction from buyers to a retest of the 0.7534 level. The USDJPY bulls came under fire from the USD selloff as price broke down below the 113.400 level. Price did recover back above the level showing expectations for a bounce into the USD. For further downside, price will need to hold below the 113.720 zone.

SPOT GOLD did not know which way to go after the ECB release but eventually settled on a move lower. Price gave up earlier minor gains from the Asian session to move back below the 1800 level. The rejection of the 1810 area may drag in more sellers as bulls become more disheartened with yet another failed rally. Crude Oil was pushed into the 81.00 zone before being ramped up in the US session to end slightly higher. Watching for some residual selling pressure today for a retest back into the 81 area as price action looks heavy and may see some profit taking in the short term…but crude being crude, it may just as easily move straight to new highs. Copper rallied through Asian trade but did fail to kick on in the US session even as the USD fell. If price moves up through 4.4600, then expect to see buyers get excited and give price a nice nudge higher off a major support zone.

Cryptocurrencies fought back from recent selling with Bitcoin seeing a sharp spike lower followed by a quick recovery into the close of the US session giving other pairs the green light to rally. The flush and recovery has bulls excited that a floor is in and prices are again ready to run. Bitcoin is currently trading at $61807.5 up 4.63%% while Ethereum is trading at $4266.23 up 6.71% and Ripple is at $1.07129 up 5.77%.

The ASX200 had another choppy session yesterday with the index under pressure from the open. Price is getting pushed lower as buyers are slowly locking in some gains in an uncertain environment. The index ended the day down 18.3 points to 7430.4 up 30 points off the intraday lows. Stocks in the Energy, Metals and Mining and Resources sectors were most under pressure as falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 870 to 538 and 400 ended unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 20 points after the SPI200 again rejected lows and pushed higher in the overnight session.


JPY Prelim Industrial Production 10:50am

AUD PPI and Retail Sales 11:30am

JPY Consumer Confidence 4pm

EUR German Prelim GDP 7pm

CAD GDP 11:30pm

USD Core PCE Price Index 11:30pm

USD Revised Consumer Sentiment 1am


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