Morning Jumpstart Macro View 2/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 13 pts to 7360
  • SP500 up 8.29 pts to 4613.67
  • NASDAQ Composite up 97.52 pts to 15595.91
  • Dow Jones up 94.28 pts to 35913.84
  • FTSE100 up 51.05 pts to 7288.62
  • DAX30 up 117.52 pts to 15806.29
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $11.00 to $1794.90 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0203 to $4.3883 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) up $0.38 to $83.95 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.53 pts to 239.23
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7518
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1607
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3661
  • USDJPY trading at 114.0000
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.244 to 93.877

US indexes added to Fridays gains with all three majors ending in new all time highs as the share market continues to power higher. Looks like most of the heavy lifting into the broader market SP500 was done by one stock….Tesla…as it surged 8.49% and has gone near vertical since crossing the $1 trillion market cap last week. Energy shares also buoyed the underlying market as traders gear up for an important week for Central Banks. The RBA statement will be today and may set the tone for the US Fed Reserve Wednesday where they are widely expected to approve plans to scale back the $120 billion monthly bond-buying program…or simply put…turn the tap off. Traders will also be keenly listening for any commentary around interest rates as many major investment banks in the US…such as Goldman Sachs…have brought forward their timeline for rate rises as inflation remains persistent. The DOW closed up 0.26% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.18% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.63% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were supported right from the open to start the new week and month with a solid session. Bulls were supporting bank stocks on expectations for rate rises to come as bond yields rallied during the European session although they gave back the gains in US trade. Solid earnings results also added fuel for bulls with the economic outlook looking positive.

The USD Index edged its way lower all day to squeeze out some buyers from Fridays big spike higher. Expecting that the Dollar is just playing games ahead of the FOMC statement Wednesday but still expect to see higher prices as the Fed is expected to unwind stimulus. Will expect to see some buyers nibble at the Dollar Index today and start to provide some support. The EURUSD was happy with the USD move as price moved higher off support around 1.1538. Like the Dollar, the Euro may be just waiting for the FOMC statement and more clarity on the USDs next move. The Euro is very much linked to the USD as price action brushed aside the late strength back into European bonds and continued to move up. The GBPUSD continued to be pressured into support around 1.3665 and found no love from the fall into the USD. Traders will be setting the scene for the BOEs Monetary Policy report Thursday where it is also expected that the taps will be turned off. For now, price is being held down at 1.3694. The AUDUSD initially pushed down in Asian and European trade before the selloff into the USD saw the Aussie spike back up to new intraday highs. Price reacted up and off the 0.7485 zone which will be the target to break for bears if the USD rallies in later sessions…as long as 0.7545 can hold the action down. The USDJPY saw some bullish action early before price headed south at the start of the European session. Like the USD, watching to see if buyers start to edge back into the action after a good squeeze on recent buyers off 113.410.

SPOT GOLD found some love and interest from buyers as the USD rolled over. Price reacted up and off the 1784 level to end near session highs. Expect that gold bulls may once again be disappointed if the USD starts to find a bid and move up. Crude Oil did its usual thing and move higher to brush aside any early USD strength. Price held a minor higher low at 82.78 and added to recent gains off major support around 81.00. Expect that bulls will keep the momentum going today. Copper is trying to take advantage of the USD weakness and work its way up off support although the action did find some intraday selling pressure to cap the buying into 4.4030. Bulls will want to see price break up through 4.4065 today to clear out some recent sellers although if the USD starts to head higher again or even find a base, then it will be a tough ask.

Cryptocurrencies were generally contained as Bitcoin gave up early gains into the US close and other pairs floundered including Ethereum. Bitcoin is currently trading at $60985.30 up 0.47% while Ethereum is trading at $4342.76 up 2.27% and Ripple is at $1.08987 down 1.08%.

The ASX200 managed to make back some of the losses from Friday as price rallied from the open and held the gains into the close with bargain hunters providing support. At the close the index ended up 47.1 points to 7370.8 with shares in Telecom Services, IT and Consumer Discretionary leading the way while the Gold sector ended lower. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 698 to 694 and 386 ended unchanged. Asian shares were a mixed bag with the Nikkei ending up 2.6% and the Hang Seng down 0.88%.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 10 points after the SPI200 again fends off an early move lower.


AUD RBA Rate Statement and Cash Rate

AUD RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speaks 4:50pm

EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 7:55pm


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