Morning Jumpstart Macro View 3/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 71 pts to 7360
  • SP500 up 16.98 pts to 4630.65
  • NASDAQ Composite up 53.68 pts to 15649.60
  • Dow Jones up 138.79 pts to 36052.63
  • FTSE100 down 13.81 pts to 7274.81
  • DAX30 up 148.16 pts to 15954.45
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) down $6.80 to $1789.00 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0245 to $4.3690 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $0.50 to $83.55 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 0.03 pts to 239.20
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7431
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1581
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3614
  • USDJPY trading at 113.9900
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.214 to 94.093

Another session and more new all time highs for US indexes. Bulls were again supported by some positive earnings and continue to adopt the theory…the higher the better before the FOMC statement where they may find tapering begins. If the RBA statement yesterday is anything to go by (not suggesting any collusion at all) the Fed will stick to the same tune and highlight the labour market recovery to full employment as the key for any future rate rise….oh…and transient inflation of course. Markets like predictability so are happy with earnings which are underpinning a strong economy and have accepted the start of the scaling back of the Bond buying program. The FED has telegraphed tapering well as they want to avoid any spike in bond yields as happened with the 2013 ‘taper tantrum’ and we can see that is showing up in the 10-yr Bond prices as they have settled into a controlled daily downtrend. The DOW closed up 0.39% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.37% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.34% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were mixed with the DAX pushing higher and the FTSE edging lower. The DAX is now within striking distance of new all time highs as traders focus on major central bank meetings and a timeline for the ECB to taper also.

The USD Index made its way higher after a quick flush below the 93.900 zone early in Asian trade. Price action is holding minor higher lows as bulls pressure price higher. Expecting to see a grind up to the 94.300 level potentially ahead of the FOMC announcement today which may point to the start of tapering and give further support to the USD. As expected, the EURUSD edged lower to mirror the move up in the USD. Expecting price to put further pressure on recent buyers and hold the minor lower high at 1.1585 and move down towards major support at 1.1533 although expecting the action to be contained ahead of the FOMC statement release. The GBPUSD spent more time squeezing out buyers and extended on the recent bearish action. Expecting that the Pound may be targeting lower into 1.3578 or further into 1.3548 as buyers unwind longs bets made on expectations for a rate hike announcement Thursday from the BOE after the RBAs more dovish tone suggests the same could be said from BOE. The AUDUSD took a hit after the RBA were happy to continue along the same path with regards to tapering QE and rate rises citing the need for further improvement in the Labour market. Price has now well and truly broken the recent up trend after the 0.7487 level broke meaning that there is a lot of buyers still to be squeezed out of the action on a continued move lower in the longer term. The USDJPY recovered from an earlier selloff as the USD pushed higher. Price continues to consolidate the previous move up off 109.000 which suggests bulls are betting on further USD appreciation. Expecting to see any selling pressure lower absorbed by buyers above 113.400.

SPOT GOLD continues to struggle with any rally as price action held a retest of the 1796 area before moving back down. The price action on the grind lower did not show a lot of conviction so feels more like buyers unwinding rather than serious weakness coming into the action. Expect to see a choppy market ahead of FOMC and any potential USD volatility. Crude Oil saw some unwinding of buyers also, as price moved lower off 84.35. Short term support is at 82.80 which could drag in some buyers although price looks adamant on a further squeeze lower so expecting to see the 82.80 level flushed today. Copper was well contained around major support at 4.3210 which bulls are desperately trying to hold. Price for now is ranging and has stemmed the tide of selling unless we see a spike in the USD later in the US session around FOMC release.

Cryptocurrencies were back on the march higher overnight led by a rally into Bitcoin. Ethereum and Ripple also kicked on strong along with other popular pairs such as Litecoin and EOS. Bitcoin is currently trading at $63290.30 up 3.04% while Ethereum is trading at $4522.69 up 3.67% and Ripple is at $1.13853 down 4.75%.

The ASX200 reversed Mondays rally with a selloff into the RBA statement and it held the losses into the close to end down 46.5 points to 7324.3. Shares in the Metals and Mining, Resources and Materials sectors led the action lower as falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 785 to 577 and 411 ended unchanged. The RBA kept rates on hold as was largely expected, and were also happy to keep QE running with no timeframe for now…apparently just happy to watch what other Central Banks do with tapering before making any decisions trying not to rock the Housing apple cart.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 70 points as the SPI200 made back all the days losses overnight as price rallied up off support.


NZD Unemployment Rate and Employment Change 8:45am

JPY Bank Holiday

AUD Building Approvals 11:30am

CNY Caixin Services PMI 12:45pm

EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 7pm

EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 8:30pm

USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 11:15pm

USD ISM Services PMI 1am

USD Crude Oil Inventories 1:30am

USD FOMC Statement and Fed Funds Rate 5am

USD FOMC Press Conference 5:30am


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