Morning Jumpstart Macro View 9/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 12 pts to 7459
  • SP500 up 7.65 pts to 4705.18
  • NASDAQ Composite up 37.88 pts to 16009.47
  • Dow Jones up 105.47 pts to 36433.42
  • FTSE100 down 3.56 pts to 7300.40
  • DAX30 down 7.84 pts to 16046.52
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $10.40 to $1827.20 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0667 to $4.4097 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) up $0.87 to $82.14 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.55 pts to 235.55
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7423
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1588
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3562
  • USDJPY trading at 113.2500
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.277 to 94.040

US indexes were range bound from the open lacking any conviction from either bulls or bears. Tesla took a hit on the open after Elon Musk put it to a ‘Twitter’ vote as to whether he should sell 10% of his Tesla stock or not…and it seems that the vote was a ‘yes’. Tesla weighed on the Nasdaq which in turn weighed on the Broader market SP500. Traders were happy to remain on the sidelines as they await more inflationary data out tonight along with more Central Banker speeches centered around inflation and interest rates. US 10-year bond yields fought back up off lows made Friday as traders look ahead to Bond auctions this week. The DOW closed up 0.29% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.16% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.24% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were slightly weaker for the session as some weaker earnings weighed on the action. Commodity related stocks performed well to help major indexes fend over further weakness. Traders were rather contained as they mull over inflation and interest rates after the US’s strong employment report Friday.

The USD Index added to recent losses as price continued to pressure lower from the start of Asian trade. The selling has now flushed out a lot of buyers who were disappointed with last weeks Central Banks view on rates…namely the BOEs failure to raise rates that was widely expected and telegraphed. The dollar has support down at 93.800 and is back in a zone where it has seen a lot of action previously so expecting to see buyers provide a decent bid to again support price. The EURUSD took the opportunity to continue higher on the dollar weakness and pushed up through the 1.1570 area. Expecting to see more seling pressure step in and hold the price below 1.1615 resistance….unless the USD makes a dramatic move lower. The GBPUSD managed to hold above the 1.3425 level and move higher as bulls moved back into the currency pair off support. The previous long trade on the back of rate rise expectations was very ‘crowded’ and there was a lot of energy to be squeezed out which now looks like it has been done after last nights rally. Watching to see if a pullback is met with a bid and holds a higher low as the consensus builds that the BOE will have to raise rates next month. The AUDUSD also managed to add to recent gains being driven largely by the USD weakness. As mentioned in the previous Morning Jumpstart, price could continue to move up while still holding below the 0.7465 area and therefore holding the trend down. If the Aussie starts to get heavy again, then expecting to see renewed selling pressure and a move back into and potentially through the 0.7380 support level. The USDJPY traded as expected and moved through the 113.220 level to trigger sell stop losses into action. The question is now whether price holds below the level and continues to head south or whether we see a bid push price back above the 113.220 level and edge higher. Expect that this will depend on the USD action today.

SPOT GOLD was happy to also add to recent gains on the USD weakness and extend into the 1830 area. The recent move up off 1764 is being anchored at 1812 so bulls will be watching this level closely to see if it will hold. There is a lot of overhead resistance for bulls to contend with so expecting to see some profit taking from buyers as Gold would need a major selloff into the USD to push through which I expect is unlikely. Crude Oil managed to add to the recent gains and push back above the 82.50 level although the move was short lived. We will be watching to see if buyers can hold above the 81.00 level and consolidate the recent gains which will give sidelined bulls more confidence to step back into the action. Copper initially edged lower before holding a higher low and ramp higher into the US close. Bulls were supported by the USD move down but still have a lot of work to do before a trend up may be on the cards. Price has resistance at 4.4400 to contend with in the short term.

Cryptocurrencies went full steam ahead again as Bitcoin punched its way up through resistance around $64K to trade up around highs from late October. Other Crypto pairs followed suit with Litecoin being a standout performer. Bitcoin is currently trading at $66105.10 up 6.14% while Ethereum is trading at $4762.63 up 3.46% and Ripple is at $1.25575 up 3.22%.

The ASX200 started the new week yesterday with a very lacklustre session as price action was well contained from the open with neither the bulls or bears very enthusiastic. The index ended the day down 4.7 points to 7452.2 with the IT and Healthcare sectors weighing most on the action while Gold and Energy were by far the best performers for the day.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 10 points as the SPI200 edged its way back up into the day sessions highs.


JPY Average Cash Earnings 10:30am

JPY Current Account 10:50am

EUR German Trade Balance 6pm

EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment and German ZEW Economic Sentiment 9pm

EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 12am

USD PPI Data 12:30am

USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks 1am

GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks 3am


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