Morning Jumpstart Macro View 10/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 20 pts to 7440
  • SP500 down 16.45 pts to 4685.25
  • NASDAQ Composite down 95.82 pts to 15886.54
  • Dow Jones down 112.24 pts to 36319.98
  • FTSE100 down 26.36 pts to 7274.04
  • DAX30 down 6.05 pts to 16040.47
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $6.10 to $1834.10 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0263 to $4.3727 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) up $2.43 to $84.36 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.03 pts to 236.59
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7380
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1595
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3561
  • USDJPY trading at 112.8800
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.079 to 93.963

US indexes took a break from the bull run to ease off highs and end the session lower. Tesla took a hit as price saw another bout of profit taking off highs as holders rushed to beat Elon to the sell button. Producer Price (PPI) data came out strong as expected to highlight continued inflationary concerns. The important Consumer Price (CPI) data will be out tonight and could see further selling as inflation worries are rekindled. As earnings come to an end, investors will be focusing again on inflation and may be triggered into locking in some gains after the stellar rebound since the start of October. Fed Chair Powell again spoke to ease any concerns as he talked up the importance of ‘full employment’ and the need to ‘remain patient and prioritize further strides towards maximum employment before raising interest rates’. The DOW closed down 0.31% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.35% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.60% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes edged lower as the DAX and FTSE grow more tentative up at highs with bulls re-assessing the recent rally. Falling Bon yields weighed on bank stocks while resources also came under pressure.

The USD Index found some buyers off support around 93.800 as price was choppy above the level. Price held a minor lower high around 94.120 that could further pressure the Dollar today ahead of the CPI numbers out prior to the US Session open. Bulls will be looking to again defend the 93.800 level to see if they can start a squeeze on recent sellers. If the CPI number comes out strong, expecting to see the dollar supported. The EURUSD did hold a higher low at 1.1572 but rallies into the 1.1606 level were well capped. Bulls will be keen to see some stronger European inflationary data tonight to hopefully drag in more buyers for a spike up through 1.1610. Again, this will largely depend on the USD action ahead of US CPI. If the Euro starts to fade of highs, then expecting to see the 1.1570 level come under pressure. The GBPUSD managed to flush up through 1.3580 in the European session before falling over into the US open. Price is currently holding below the level and may see further pressure today to move below 1.3525 if bears have their way. The AUDUSD took a hit during European trade to fail off previous session highs around 0.7430. Price moved straight down into lows at 0.7360 and could see further selling today as the trend down off 0.7550 is again confirmed and anchored now at 0.7430. The USDJPY was hit early as sellers piled in around 113.200 to drive price lower early. Buyers did step back in at 112.795 but the pressure remains to the downside at the moment unless the USD can move up off current lows. If the USDJPY holds below the 113.070 level, then we may see the move lower extended.

SPOT GOLD continued to find a bid and extend on the move up into a key resistance zone around 1830. As mentioned in the previous Morning Jumpstart, Gold will need to see a strong USD selloff to rally up through the level which may be a big ask into US CPI data so expecting to see some buyers lock away some gains ahead of the release today. The anchor to the move up is now at 1820 so as long as it holds, bills are in charge. Crude Oil toyed with bears before ramping higher through 82.80 from the start of the US session. Price is extended into highs from a week ago so may start to be capped into 84.80. Oil inventory data is out tonight which may throw a spanner in the works. Copper took a hit at the start of the US session after the PPI data release. It seems that Copper bulls are still not happy and reluctant to ramp price up off support around 4.3065. If bulls can again defend the support area, then expect to see a stronger leg higher.

Cryptocurrencies were mixed with some seeing buyers support rallies while others edged lower. The majors such as BTC and ETH were up early before finding sellers through the European and US sessions to give up most of the early gains. Still, most are holding short term uptrends. Bitcoin is currently trading at $66684.50 up 1.30% while Ethereum is trading at $4733.97 down 0.40% and Ripple is at $1.25169 down 0.75%.

The ASX200 was a choppy mess yesterday with price oscillating from gains to losses a few times during the session before ending down 18 points to 7434.2. Shares in the Metals and Mining, Materials and IT helped to provide some support while Energy and Financials were the main drag on the market.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 15 points although sellers may cap any rally on the open after the weakness in the US session.


AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 10:30am

CNY CPI and PPI 12:30pm

EUR German Final CPI 6pm

EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks 8pm

USD CPI Data and Unemployment Claims 12:30am

USD Crude Oil Inventories 2:30am

USD 30-yr Bond Auction 5:01am


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