Morning Jumpstart Macro View 12/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 32 pts to 7403
  • SP500 up 2.56 pts to 4649.27
  • NASDAQ Composite up 81.57 pts to 15704.28
  • Dow Jones down 158.71 pts to 35921.23
  • FTSE100 up 44.03 pts to 7384.18
  • DAX30 up 15.28 pts to 16083.11
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $16.40 to $1864.70 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0770 to $4.4000 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $0.17 to $81.17 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 2.80 pts to 237.46
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7292
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1448
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3365
  • USDJPY trading at 114.0800
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.315 to 95.153

US indexes were mixed with the DOW coming under some pressure and tech bargain hunters supporting the Nasdaq and therefore the broader market SP500. Bulls brushed aside yesterdays CPI scare and edged back into the action although Bond prices are pointing to the other side of the coin as yields continued to climb again forcing the USD higher. These two markets again question the Feds interest rate stance and weaken the transitory inflation narrative and still expecting the Fed will be forced to raise rates faster than expected. Share indexes were also supported by Evergrande avoiding default again and hopes Beijing will give the broader sector support to fend off any major issues. The DOW closed down 0.44% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.06% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.52% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes moved higher and brushed aside the weakness in the US from the previous session. Evergrande news provided relief for investors and some buying into mining stocks which supported the market. Iron ore and Copper prices surged on Evergrande news which will help the ASX bulls today.

The USD Index continued to move higher and extend on the previous sessions gains above the 94.800 level as traders re-price Fed Policy expectations. The Dollar is highlighting the expectations for higher rates as traders believe its not the peak of inflation considering the continued supply chain issues and higher commodity prices. The longer the dollar holds above the 94.800 level, the higher we expect it to rally with the next major level being u p at 97.700. The EURUSD extended on recent losses as price is searching for buyers whicg are happy to remain on the sidelines for now with the USD pointing higher. If the Euro does not find a bid into the 1.1400 zone then we expect that bears will be looking lower to the 1.1200 area. For now price action is being held down at 1.1475 in the short term. The GBPUSD continued to be pressured lower as recent economic data suggests that Britain’s economy is lagging its rivals. This means that traders are happy to be short Pound against the US for higher yield expectations. Like the Euro, Pound Bulls are searching for a bid and support with price being anchored lower at 1.3413. The AUDUSD was again dragged lower by the move up in the USD. Bears remain in control with short term resistance holding the action down at 0.7310. After yesterdays disappointing local employment data, the Aussie may come under further pressure today. The USDJPY held the recent gains thanks to continued strength into the USD but did find some bearish pressure to offset the USD strength. Price has minor resistance at the 114.100 zone that may be targeted today as stop losses above are hunted by bulls.

SPOT GOLD moved higher again to consolidate the gains from the break up above the 1830 area. It is interesting to see Gold is now reacting to inflation concerns and going against the flow of USD strength which has not been the recent trend. The anchor to the move up is at 1842 and bulls will be looking to break above 1866 today to add to the rally. Crude Oil was choppy after OPEC said the demand may slow as prices hold highs. Price flushed above and below the $81 level as traders fought it out. If demand is really expected to slow, watching for the 82.07 level to hold the action down in the short term as sellers try to flush out more bulls. Copper was bid up from the start of the Asian session and extended the gains into the US close on Evergrande news. Still, price remains in the recent range between 4.4525 and 4.3050 and may see some short term profit taking into the 4.3050 area.

Cryptocurrencies were mixed with Bitcoin being well contained above $64K while Ethereum edged higher. Bitcoin is currently trading at $64818.60 down 1.52% while Ethereum is trading at $4737.40 up 4.02% and Ripple is at $1.21024 up 2.32%.

The ASX200 had a rough session yesterday with a lot of recent bulls forced out of the action. Price managed to rally into the close and make back some of the days losses and end down 42 points to 7381.9. The employment data was out and surprised all to pressure the ASX lower, as it missed expectations with the unemployment rate in at 5.2% versus 4.6% previously. Shares in IT, Healthcare and Energy were the biggest weight on the market while Gold and Metals and Mining offset some of the losses. The Hang Seng and the Nikkei both ended in the green 1.01% and 0.59% respectively.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 30/35 points as the SPI200 again moved higher in overnight trade (to the same close as the previous night). Higher commodity prices in Iron ore and Copper are expected to buoy the resources sector today.


EUR Industrial Production 9pm

USD Jolts Job Openings 2am

USD Prelim Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations 2am

USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks 4:10am


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