Morning Jumpstart Macro View 15/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 3 pts to 7435
  • SP500 up 33.58 pts to 4682.85
  • NASDAQ Composite up 156.68 pts to 15860.96
  • Dow Jones up 179.08 pts to 36100.31
  • FTSE100 down 36.27 pts to 7347.91
  • DAX30 up 10.96 pts to 16094.07
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $3.80 to $1867.70 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0530 to $4.4525 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $0.80 to $80.79 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 0.37 pts to 237.09
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7332
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1445
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3414
  • USDJPY trading at 113.8900
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.063 to 95.112

US indexes ended the week adding to recent gains led by Tech stocks. The broader market SP500 was led higher by FAANGs stocks as Facebook ended up 4% leading the charge. Filings showed that Elon Musk was true to his word and sold more stock in Tesla leading to the stock price to end down 2.8% for the session. The key focus for traders remains inflation and how the Fed will react to the strong CPI numbers out last week. Biden on Sunday acknowledged that inflation is a problem but palmed it off to being caused by the pandemic not to government policies while many expect that the $1 trillion infrastructure bill will only add to current inflation problems. Biden also pushed the transitory inflation theme and said that prices will return to normal once supplies chains ease…hard to believe that big companies will willingly put prices back down especially when battling with labour issues and higher wages. The DOW closed up 0.50% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.72% and the Nasdaq closed up 1.00% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were mixed with the FTSE ending lower while the DAX ended higher for the session. Some strong earnings results helped to provide support although both indexes were unwilling to add more risk to markets into the weekend. It is expected that the BOE will be the first major Central Bank to raise rates with analysts targeting December….but they have been wrong before.

The USD Index edged lower as recent buyers locked in some gains and the rally from the strong CPI numbers faded. Price remains above the 94.800 area and may be looking to hold a higher low for another push higher in coming sessions if bulls can hold above the zone. The EURUSD consolidated around the recent lows as buyers were unwilling to dip their toes in the water with the USD holding highs. Price is now being held down at 1.1455 which will need to break before sellers are put under any pressure. For now, the action remains looking heavy. The GBPUSD managed to make its way up off lows around 1.3360 for the session. If buyers can break up through 1.3433, then expect to see a squeeze on recent sellers and a spike higher. If sellers push back down to the 1.3382 area, then we may see a flush through Fridays lows. The AUDUSD managed to rally and squeeze out some sellers as price held a minor higher low at 0.7291 as US share indexes rallied. Price is extended in the near term so may need a flush lower today ahead of the European and US sessions. The USDJPY flushed up through 114.100 to trigger some stop losses early before finding sellers to cap the action at 114.270. From there, price following the USD lower into the close. Bulls will be looking for the 113.780 level to hold today and bring in some buyers hoping for a push up through 114.270. If the level breaks, expect sellers will start the march lower.

SPOT GOLD was choppy as bulls continued to hold price above the anchor to the recent move up at 1842. Price action was weak in the Asian and European session before turning sharply to rally back into highs into the close. The 1869 level is the key target for buyers to see if they can push up and through to drag more buyers to continue the daily trend higher. Crude Oil was again choppy and remained under selling pressure off 84.80 highs. Price may be targeting a move down into recent lows around 79.00 as traders grapple with the potential for lower demand induced by high oil prices. Copper held a higher low at 4.3760 and ramped up into resistance around the 4.4580 zone. Bulls were helped by the USD weakness so may look to lock in some gains off resistance today if the dollar holds above 95.000.

Cryptocurrencies were generally pressured lower over the weekend as Ripple was caught in a tight range, Bitcoin held above 63500, Ethereum moved back into Fridays lows and EOS backed off recent highs. Bitcoin is currently trading at $64234.00 down 0.20% while Ethereum is trading at $4557.11 down 2.02% and Ripple is at $1.18274 down 0.25%.

The ASX200 had a good open Friday as bulls ramped price higher and held on to the gains into the close to follow on from Thursdays positive end of session move after local employment data missed expectations. The index ended up 61.1 points with shares in Materials, Metals and Mining and Resources leading the charge while Gold stocks took a breather. The Nikkei ended the week with a strong session up 1.13% while the Hang Seng gave up early gains to end up only 0.32%.

The ASX200 is expected to open flat after the SPI200 held the days gains but failed to kick on higher with the US into the weekend.


JPY Prelim GDP Data 10:50m

AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks 11:30am

CNY Retail Sales 1pm

EUR Trade Balance 9pm

USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 12:30am


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