Morning Jumpstart Macro View 17/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 19 pts to 7428
  • SP500 up 18.10 pts to 4700.90
  • NASDAQ Composite up 120.01 pts to 15973.86
  • Dow Jones up 54.77 pts to 36142.22
  • FTSE100 down 24.89 pts to 7326.97
  • DAX30 up 99.22 pts to 16247.86
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) down $15.00 to $1851.60 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0552 to $4.3448 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $0.12 to $80.76 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.03 pts to 237.49
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7301
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1318
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3426
  • USDJPY trading at 114.7800
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.528 to 95.933

US indexes moved higher from the open to add to gains from Friday as the broader market SP500 pushes towards all time highs. Positive economic data was a big bright spot prior to the open as Retail Sales surged showing some strength in the Consumer. The data suggests that even though Consumers are concerned for inflation, they are spending up big into Christmas thanks to rising household wealth from a strong stock market and high house prices along with savings thanks to lockdowns and also higher wages….it seems that it is a case of watch what Consumers do rather than what they say! Consumers may be getting a jump on Xmas shopping so data may ease into the end of the year. This still all points to continued higher inflation as Consumers show they can absorb higher prices meaning companies will likely not reduce prices once supply bottlenecks ease. The DOW closed up 0.15% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.39% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.76% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were mixed as the German DAX continued to push into new all time highs supported by recent ECB comments on continued support and rate rises not until 2023. The UK FTSE edged lower as traders remain on the sidelines ahead of the inflationary CPI data release tonight.

The USD Index rallied from the start of the US session as demand was lifted by the positive retail data. Price initially spiked and held the gains into the close in a very positive move as the dollar continues to add to recent rally and be in demand for FX traders. The move was supported by a lift in US bond yields which ended at session highs. For now, the trend up is held at 95.800 in the short term. The EURUSD of course took another hit to add to recent losses. Price may be targeting down to the 1.1200 area before potentially finding a bid but that will largely depend on the USD. Price could easily go lower after the ECB knocked rate rises on the head while the US is getting closer after overnight retail sales data added to expectations for a higher yielding USD. The GBPUSD did come under pressure from the USD rally but was only giving up earlier gains from the European session open. Traders on both sides are reluctant to add risk and push price out of the recent congestion ahead of CPI numbers tonight. Support for the Pound is coming in at 1.3406 for now. The AUDUSD took a beating from late in the Asian session when price broke down below 0.7342. Bears will be looking to the lows around 0.7280 today. Demand for the USD is weighing on the Aussie along with issues in China with the property market. The RBA also weighed on price as they said not to expect a rate rise until 2024. The USDJPY powered higher as price broke up and through the 114.270 level late in the European session. The rally into the US close took out recent highs from 20th Oct around 114.700 so bulls are strong. Watching the action to see whether buyers can keep the momentum going at the start of the Asian session.

SPOT GOLD initially popped up through the 1868 resistance area to flush out stop losses before being dumped back down below 1860. Price will be confusing the bull case for an inflation hedge as price was sold once the USD rally kicked off. For now, I expect to see a further squeeze on buyers and grind lower. Crude Oil was also weighed down by the rally into the USD but did recover well from an early spike lower. For now, price action continues to chop around the $81 mark as traders will be focusing on coming oil inventory data out tonight in the US session. Copper was again beaten down by the rally into the USD. Price action pushed below the 4.3755 level to trade into 4.3240. Expecting to see price extend on the losses today and push deeper into the support zone around 4.3050.

Cryptocurrencies took a hit overnight across the board as the USD rally pressured bulls. Still, the crypto world is touting the move as just another dip and buying opportunity but the technical action may be suggesting something different. Bitcoin is currently trading at $60555.2 down 5.25% while Ethereum is trading at $4251.59 down 7.02% and Ripple is at $1.09382 down 7.31%.

The ASX200 opened weaker yesterday and saw a gradual selloff into the close as the index ended down 49.7 points to 7420.4. The main sectors under pressure were Metals and Mining, Materials and Resources while other sectors also saw their share of sellers. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 881 to 488 and 423 ended unchanged. The Hang Seng had a good session and is finding more love from bulls while the Nikkei ended relatively unchanged.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 15 points after the SPI200 made back some of the days losses in the overnight session.


JPY Core Machinery Orders and Trade Balance 10:50am

AUD Wage Price Index 11:30am

EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 12:20pm

GBP CPI and PPI Data 6pm

EUR ECB Financial Stability Review Tentative

EUR Final CPI Data 9pm

CAD CPI Data 12:30am

USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks 1:10am

USD Crude Oil Inventories 2:30am


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