Morning Jumpstart Macro View 18/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 2 pts to 7368
  • SP500 down 11.91 pts to 4688.99
  • NASDAQ Composite down 52.29 pts to 15921.57
  • Dow Jones down 211.17 pts to 35931.05
  • FTSE100 down 35.77 pts to 7291.20
  • DAX30 up 3.27 pts to 16251.13
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $15.10 to $1869.20 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.1480 to $4.2032 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $2.50 to $78.26 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 1.36 pts to 236.14
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7265
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1319
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3490
  • USDJPY trading at 114.1300
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.106 to 95.805

US indexes moved lower from the open and held the losses into the close. Recent retail sales strength weighed on the market open as traders translated the strength into higher inflation pressures. Some retailers, such as Target, released positive earnings to beat profit expectations and increase the pressure for rate rises. More positive earnings from retailers later in the week are expected to round out third quarter earnings. Bonds lifted off lows as yields eased and the dollar pulled back from highs. Housing starts dropped while Building permits rose which showed the ongoing disruption to the housing market from a shortage of materials and labor. The DOW closed down 0.58% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.25% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.33% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were mixed with the FTSE moving lower while the DAX was largely range bound up at all time highs. Positive earnings helped to offset inflationary concerns over soaring gas prices. Data showed that eurozone inflation rose to more than twice the ECB’s target in October (making the ECB comments on inflation feel more like a plee) while UK CPI came in higher than expected. Services inflation was contained although expected to rise with higher input costs while Energy is doing the bulk of the heavy lifting for inflation.

The USD Index drifted lower from highs made early in the Asian market session. The action has all the hallmarks of a pullback which suggests that the trend up is set to continue. Watching today for the 95.650 level to hold and buyers to again lift price to pressure into highs as bulls target higher levels. The EURUSD took another hit early before finding some support from the falling USD. Price held below the 1.1327 area which will be the target of a flush today to put some sellers back on the sidelines. If the level holds, then expecting to see another push lower. The GBPUSD found bulls resetting long positions on rate rise expectations after the better than expected CPI numbers. Core CPI came in at 3.4% from 2.9% which triggered buyers into action. The anchor to the move up is at 1.3404 while buyers will be targeting a push into the 1.3550 area. The AUDUSD continued to find sellers pressure price lower even against the move down in the USD. Price did rally at different stages of the overnight session but any spike was sold into as traders continue to favour the USD. Expecting to see sellers search out more bids today on a grind lower. The USDJPY tumbled from highs at the start of the European session, as JPY was Bid up, with price moving from 114.900 hitting 114.000 late in US trade. Expecting that the move lower was to clear out some late buyers prior to a reset and push higher. If the USD holds around current levels and moves up, then expecting to see some flows back into the USDJPY.

SPOT GOLD rallied back off the 1850 area as buyers edged back into the action with the Dollar weakness to make back the previous sessions losses. Price action again found sellers into 1868 which may be a sign that bears will look to defend the level especially if the USD rallies. For now, buyers will look to break back above the level and continue the overnight move up. Crude Oil nosedived through the $79 support area at the start of the US session. Price was under pressure right from the Asian market open and continued to pullback from longer term daily highs. Price may find a bid today as the market is extended. Copper was also hit hard through support at 4.3050, against the flow of the USD, as bears look to be targeting down to 4.0000 major support. Copper and Oil both seem to be factoring in higher USD prices as Oil inventories were weaker than expected and should have provided some support.

Cryptocurrencies were happy to consolidate around the lows as the USD held its gains. The key pairs held minor lower highs but further selling pressure was subdued as were bulls…although bulls were chanting ‘buy the dip’…there was no sign of it just yet. Bitcoin is currently trading at $60555.2 down 5.25% while Ethereum is trading at $4251.59 down 7.02% and Ripple is at $1.09382 down 7.31%.

The ASX200 kicked higher early yesterday before a straight run lower into the close to end the day down 50.5 points to 7369.9. Losses in the Financial, Gold and Metals and Mining sectors weighed most on the bulls while Utilities and IT did its best to provide some support. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 792 to 614 and 389 ended unchanged. Both the Nikkei and Hang Seng were also slightly lower at the close.

The ASX200 is expected to open up flat to 5 points after a lacklustre session from the SPI200.


AUD RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks 3pm

USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks 12am

USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims 12:30am

USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks 1:30am

USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks 6am


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