Morning Jumpstart Macro View 19/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 8 pts to 7375
  • SP500 up 15.86 pts to 4704.53
  • NASDAQ Composite up 72.14 pts to 15993.71
  • Dow Jones down 60.10 pts to 35870.95
  • FTSE100 down 35.24 pts to 7255.96
  • DAX30 down 29.40 pts to 16221.73
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) down $8.10 to $1862.10 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0388 to $4.3048 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) up $0.31 to $78.67 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.23 pts to 236.36
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7278
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1371
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3498
  • USDJPY trading at 114.2400
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.292 to 95.537

US indexes were again subdued with the DOW ending lower while the broader market SP500 ended with minor gains. The DOW opened and went straight down but later bounced back to minimise the losses while the SP500 was buoyed by FAANGs as Bond yields eased. Traders remain concerned with inflation after economic data showed manufacturing lifted and unemployment claims fell to near pre-pandemic levels. More positive earnings reports from retailers added to the expectations for entrenched inflationary pressures. For now the Consumer is weathering the storm and getting in early on Christmas shopping which supports the bulls case for now. Many analysts remain committed to a Christmas rally led by continued robust consumer demand. The DOW closed down 0.17% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.34% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.45% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes moved lower from the open to take some steam out of the recent rally. Prices were pressured by a weaker energy sector and commodity-related stocks. Energy and Miners were both down around 2% for the session. The ECB will again be out making its case for ‘no rate hikes’ tonight to calm traders nerves…and keep the rally fueled…as inflation remains resilient.

The USD Index drifted lower again and failed to hold 95.650 as Bond yields eased and bonds edged higher. Price may now look to clear out some late buyers and grind lower ahead of the US session. It seems like every FOMC member is speaking tonight and are expected to talk down rate rises so the Dollar may be choppy. The EURUSD moved up and took the opportunity to force out some sellers. Watching to see how sellers react around the 1.1384 level to see if they provide some resistance to the recent move up. The GBPUSD continued to grind higher but rallies are getting more subdued. Bulls may still be targeting the 1.3550 level but will need to show more commitment in buying to fend off new sellers. The AUDUSD initially rallied into the start of the European session before falling over at the start of US trade. The initial move down in the US Indexes pressured the Aussie before it bounced back off minor support at 0.7252. Watching to see if the lower high at 0.7291 holds for another shot at the lows today. The USDJPY found a bid overnight after the previous sessions selloff. Price grinded its way higher off 113.950 but lacked conviction from bulls. The rejection of the 114.500 area may see more sellers jump into the action today.

SPOT GOLD drifted lower after earlier spiking into the 1870 level. Price was constantly flushed as rallies were capped which suggests that the 1870 level may be a short term high. The move down came along with the Dollar selling so expecting to see more pressure today if the 1865 level holds or if the dollar rallies. Crude Oil bounced back off lows but is battling with the prospects of supply overhang as China and the US may move to release strategic reserves. The Biden administration has asked countries to consider releasing stocks of crude to cool global energy prices. For now, price has rallied up off the $77 zone and is holding minor higher lows. If 77.50 holds today, then expecting to see a further grind up but the news may cap bulls. Copper bounced back up off lows in the US session as the USD pressured lower. Price held minor support at 4.2245 and pushed through minor resistance at 4.2615 to end higher for the session. Will be watching to see how sellers react as price is extended higher in the short term and any rally back into the USD will weigh of Copper.

Cryptocurrencies continued to come under selling pressure with buyers unwinding long positions across the board as Bitcoin cracks back below the $60K level. Bitcoin is currently trading at $58126.30 down 3.81% while Ethereum is trading at $4065.43 down 4.38% and Ripple is at $1.05365 down 4.16%.

The ASX200 found a low yesterday to make back some of the previous sessions losses but only just. The index struggled to kick higher and ended the day up only 9.3 points to 7379.2. Shares in the Gold, A-Reits and Healthcare sectors led shares higher while Energy shares came under fire. The Nikkei was slightly lower while the Hang Seng opened around 1.29% down and held the losses into the close.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 10 points as the SPI200 held off lows although the ASX may be weighed down into the weekend.


JPY National Core CPI 10:50am

EUR German PPI 6pm

GBP Retail Sales 6pm

EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 7:30pm

EUR Current Account 8pm

EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks 12am

CAD Retails Sales Data 12:30am

USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks 2:45am

USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks 4:15am

EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 5am


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