Morning Jumpstart Macro View 22/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 45 pts to 7351
  • SP500 down 6.58 pts to 4697.96
  • NASDAQ Composite up 63.73 pts to 16057.44
  • Dow Jones down 268.97 pts to 35601.98
  • FTSE100 down 32.39 pts to 7223.57
  • DAX30 down 61.76 pts to 16159.97
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) down $14.60 to $1846.80 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0950 to $4.3995 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Dec) down $2.47 to $75.94 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 1.35 pts to 235.02
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7235
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1290
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3451
  • USDJPY trading at 113.9900
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.533 to 96.075

US indexes were mixed into the weekend with the DOW down from the open while the tech heavy Nasdaq rallied and held the gains into the close. Tech strength helped to support the action as pandemic and lockdown jitters set in early and sent the DOW lower. Falls were led by Banking, Airline and Energy stocks as Europe battled with more lockdowns. U 10-year Bond yields spiked lower as bonds rallied in European trade which pressured the open for the share market. It was a case of risk off into some stocks and move back into ‘stay at home’ stocks and tech which previously did well during the pandemic. The DOW closed down 0.75% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.14% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.40% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes edged lower on fresh covid-19 concerns as Austria was added to the list of countries going back into lockdown. The news cooled a buoyant market as traders were forced to rethink portfolios and play it safe for now. European banks took a hit as traders scaled back bets on rising interest rates. Bond prices took off with yields falling as rate rise expectations took a hit.

The USD Index spiked higher at the start of the European session and held the gains into the US close. Price pushed into previous highs above 96.200 before sellers were happy to cap the action. The concern over European lockdowns hit the Euro which helped to provide support to the USD. If the dollar breaks above the 96.200 level then expecting to see bulls take it to the 97.716 zone. The EURUSD came under fire as the increasing number of European countries going into lockdown took some sting out of the rate rise narrative. Buyers were squeezed out of the action as bets were off for the ECB to raise rates. Price is being held down by sellers at 1.1322 and may have another try at the 1.1250 level today. The GBPUSD fell away from highs around 1.3500 as the USD rallied. Price spiked lower into previous support around 1.3404 which will need to hold up today to fend off further selling. If the level can not hold, then expecting to see the Pound getting pushed below the 1.3360 area. The AUDUSD also took a hit on the back of the risk off tone of the markets. Price was hit lower from 0.7290 and then pushed through support at 0.7250. Sellers were happy to jump into the action and force the Aussie lower into the close. Expecting to see the AUD flush below 0.7227 on the open and if the anchor at 0.7264 holds, then sellers may take control today. The USDJPY found some safe haven YEN buying to outweigh the strength into the USD and send the pair lower. Highs at 114.488 were rejected as sellers jumped in a price looks set to continue the negative theme today if price gets hit through 113.800.

SPOT GOLD took a hit as the Dollar rallied and any support from the inflation narrative was put on hold. Price was held down at 1863 and now looks set to extend on the move lower today as sellers will be trying to squeeze out recent buyers above 1850. A break below 1844 will trigger more sellers into action. Crude Oil took a hit to extend on recent losses on lockdown fears. Price was hit from $79 down to below $76 in European trade and held the losses into the US close. Price is extended but could easily see more fear based selling today to drive price lower. Copper initially came under pressure during the European session but reversed the move down at the start of the US session as the weaker USD helped to support price and bulls brushed aside European lockdown concerns. Price is extended but may see some overflow from Fridays bullish action if the USD continues higher.

Cryptocurrencies continued to feel the pressure over the weekend with Bitcoin holding below $60K. Ethereum worked its way up off recent lows while EOS, Ripple and Litecoin continued to show weakness. Bitcoin is currently trading at $59530.70 up 0.17% while Ethereum is trading at $4376.62 down 0.68% and Ripple is at $1.07390 down 1.62%.

The ASX200 had a fairly range bound session to end the week Friday with the index well contained. At the close the ASX ended up 17.3 points to 7396.5 with shares in Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Resources leading the market higher. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 747 to 626 and 418 ended unchanged. The Hang Seng was hit on the open but managed to make back some of the losses into the close ending down 1.07% while the Nikkei ended up 0.50%.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 40 points after the SPI200 sank into the US close and the weekend to give up the days session gains.


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