Morning Jumpstart Macro View 24/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 1 pts to 7409
  • SP500 up 7.76 pts to 4690.70
  • NASDAQ Composite down 79.62 pts to 15775.14
  • Dow Jones up 194.55 pts to 35813.80
  • FTSE100 up 11.23 pts to 7266.69
  • DAX30 down 178.69 pts to 15937.00
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) down $16.80 to $1789.50 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0225 to $4.4190 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $1.75 to $78.50 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 2.88 pts to 238.14
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7228
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1250
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3377
  • USDJPY trading at 115.1100
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.046 to 96.498

US indexes were mixed with the DOW up and the broader market weighed down by tech shares. A continued rally into US bond yields and the USD pressured rate sensitive, high growth tech stocks as the FAANGs came under pressure from the open. Losses in tech were partially offset by gains in banking and energy shares. With news that Powell will continue as head of the Fed Reserve for another 4 years, it seems that traders are getting more bullish on interest rate rises and markets, especially growth stocks, are bearing the brunt of the concern. Bond and Currency Fund managers are expecting the Fed to get more aggressive with stubborn inflation as short term bonds price in almost three rate hikes into 2022. The DOW closed up 0.55% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.17% and the Nasdaq closed down 0.50% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were mixed with the FTSE working its way up off a weak open to end with minor gains while the DAX was hit on the open and never recovered to end well in the red. The DAX was weighed down by losses in Tech, Retail and Transportation as expectations for higher interest rates saw traders run for cover.

The USD Index was happy to hold around previous sessions highs as any move lower was quickly rejected by bulls. Price may look to add to recent gains in coming sessions as expectations for interest rate rises increase. Also, the expected yield advantaged for the USD over other major currencies, is adding to the bullish sentiment for the Dollar. The EURUSD was the reverse of the USD as buyers were rejecting on any move up into 1.1270 zone. For now the pressure remains down and sellers will look to break below the 1.1227 lows in coming sessions if the USD continues to rally. The GBPUSD took a hit in the European session before it managed to claw back some of the losses into the US close. Comments by a BOE policymaker said that rising wage costs will further pressure inflation higher which triggered Pound sellers into action. As long as price holds below the 1.345 area, expect to see another run at the 1.3340 lows. The AUDUSD was a choppy mess from the start of the Asian session into the US close. Price lacked any direction and was generally stuck in a range bound grind. The Aussie was caught between support from major Indexes and pressure from USD strength. The USDJPY took a hit at the start of the European session as safe haven Yen buyers pushed the pair lower. Price later worked its way back up as Dollar strength continued. Expecting to see buyers continue to pressure the USDJPY higher today on expectations for increasing support for the USD.

SPOT GOLD continued to come under fire and showed no regard for the 1800 level as sellers pushed price right through the support area. Bulls will be looking for the 1780 area to hold otherwise they will have to re-assess and look to lower levels. For now, sellers are well and truly in control with the anchor to the move down at 1811. Crude Oil rallied which was unexpected and caught many shorts off side. The US and other countries released millions of barrels from strategy reserves which should have had the opposite effect and pressured price. It seems that secret OPEC traders were on the buy side to support price. Oil is extended and may see the move down resume as supply increases. Copper saw another grind higher as buyers are looing to force price into resistance around 4.4700. Copper bulls will be happy with the recent price action as it suggests a low may be in place setting for another short term run higher.

Cryptocurrencies managed to fight back up off recent lows as bulls try to provide some short term support as Ethereum led the charge. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both under pressure on the Daily timeframe but trying to build and hold minor support in the near term. Bitcoin is currently trading at $57590.70 up 3.03% while Ethereum is trading at $4363.68 up 7.37% and Ripple is at $1.05801 up 2.47%.

The ASX200 unexpectedly reversed the previous sessions weakness yesterday with a rally from the open which continued into the close. The index ended the day up 57.5 points to 7410.6 with gains in Resources, Energy and Metals and Mining leading the market higher. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 826 to 601 and 375 ended unchanged. The Hang Seng ended down 1.20% while the Nikkei was flat.

The ASX200 is expected to open flat to up 5 points but may be tentative after yesterdays rally and continued pressure in US indexes.


AUD Construction Work Done 11:30am

AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks 11:40am

NZD Official Cash Rate and Rate Statement 12pm

EUR German Ifo Business Climate 8pm

USD Prelim GDP, Durable Goods Orders Data and Unemployment Claims 12:30am

USD Core PCE Price Index and Revised Consumer Sentiment 2am

USD Crude Oil Inventories 2:30am

USD FOMC Meeting Minutes 6am


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