Morning Jumpstart Macro View 25/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 7 pts to 7400
  • SP500 up 10.84 pts to 4701.54
  • NASDAQ Composite up 70.09 pts to 15845.23
  • Dow Jones down 9.42 pts to 35804.38
  • FTSE100 up 19.63 pts to 7286.32
  • DAX30 down 58.61 pts to 15878.39
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $4.70 to $1788.50 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) up $0.0465 to $4.4700 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $0.26 to $78.24 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.24 pts to 238.37
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7196
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1202
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3328
  • USDJPY trading at 115.3800
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.346 to 96.840

US indexes managed to fight back from a weak open to make back early losses. The three major Indexes all opened in negative territory after some uninspiring economic data but bargain hunters were quick to capitalise and lift prices after the recent negativity. Traders may be preparing for the long weekend and are happy to sit on the sidelines. Bond prices bounced back from an early flush into new short term lows but the pressure from high yields still remains. Minutes of the previous Fed’s policy meeting showed that more policymakers indicated they were open to speeding up tapering and moving quicker to raise interest rates. The news will likely keep the pressure on rising bond yields and the USD and pressure growth stocks lower. The DOW closed down 0.03% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.23% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.44% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were again mixed with the DAX coming under fire from the open while the FTSE held up well. The DAX sold lower from the open but did manage to fight back after the US open. The DAX continued to be pressured from lockdowns while the FTSE is awaiting BOE’s Bailey speech later tonight for an indication on interest rate rises.

The USD Index held in a tight range through Asian trade before rallying from the European open to add to recent gains. The dollar found some safe haven buying as the DAX index came under pressure but also from talk of higher interest rates sooner rather than later. Expecting the move up to continue into 97.660 before sellers start to potentially cap the rally. The EURUSD continued to struggle as funds flowed out of the Euro in favour of the USD. Price pushed down into 1.1188 where buyers may be tempted to dip their toes in the water to start to provide some support…as long as the dollar rally does not get out of hand. The GBPUSD also added to recent weakness as traders await news on interest rates and the BOEs stance on inflation. Price held a lower high at 1.3386 which is now the anchor to the downtrend. Sellers pushed price into new lows so we may see some back and fill higher as shorts are squeezed back out of the action. The AUDUSD also continued to pressure lower potentially targeting the 0.7169 level in the near term. Price is being held down at 0.7226 for now and sellers remain in control. The USDJPY made its way higher as the USD rallied. Price held a higher low around the 114.845 zone which is the anchor to the move up. Price is extended and may need to flush out some recent buyers before continuing higher.

SPOT GOLD continued to pressure buyers but the recent selloff may be running out of steam so may tempt some gold bugs back into the action. Watching the 1781 level today to see if buyers start to defend the level and provide some support…if they do then we can expect a squeeze on sellers and a rally back up to 1800 and above. Crude Oil was happy to consolidate the recent rally after the US and other countries dipped into their strategic oil reserves to release on market. Price held between $78.05 and $79.05. It will be interesting to see if the US oil release will eventually weigh on markets or whether the ‘secret OPEC buyer‘ will support price. Copper ran up in European trade to test and flush the 4.4700 resistance area. Buyers are pressing prices higher on expectations for increasing demand as the US economy continues to go from strength to strength. Price is extended into resistance so may see some profit taking but expecting to see the level eventually break and prices grind higher.

Cryptocurrencies are showing some better signs for crypto bulls as prices start to base especially on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin is currently trading at $57313.50 down 0.92% while Ethereum is trading at $4265.38 down 2.69% and Ripple is at $1.02572 down 3.05%.

The ASX200 could not kick on further yesterday to add to the previous sessions rally and faded into the close to end down 11.2 points to 7399.4. Sharesin Gold, IT and Industrials weighed most on the ASX while Energy bounced back. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 892 to 534 and 376 ended unchanged. The Hang Seng ended the day with minor gains while the Nikkei ended down 1.58%.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 5/10 points as the SPI200 managed to lift up off lows and make back early losses.


AUD Private Capital Expenditure 11:30am

EUR German Final GDP and Consumer Climate 6pm

EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts 11:30pm

USD Bank Holiday

EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 12:30am

GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks 4am


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