Morning Jumpstart Macro View 26/11/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 4 pts to 7411
  • SP500 Closed
  • NASDAQ Composite Closed
  • Dow Jones Closed
  • FTSE100 up 24.05 pts to 7310.37
  • DAX30 up 36.59 pts to 15917.98
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) up $4.00 to $1788.30 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Dec) down $0.0215 to $4.4375 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $0.36 to $78.03 a barrel
  • CRB Index Closed
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7188
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1209
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3324
  • USDJPY trading at 115.3600
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.115 to 96.757

US indexes were closed for Thanksgiving leaving the rest of the markets to fend for themselves. In Europe, major Indexes were higher as the DAX found some bargain hunters from the open to support the action after the recent move lower. The FTSE was happy to again drift higher in a contained session with Consumer stocks taking bulls attention. Traders looked for hints to interest rate rises from BOE Gov Bailey’s speech but he poured cold water on giving ‘guidance’ after being accused of sending a wrong signal about the likelihood of a BoE rate hike earlier this month to the surprise of markets. A surge in Covid-19 cases in Europe is raising the prospect of lockdowns going into the Christmas shopping season which continues to pressure travel and leisure stocks although a bounce in tech helped to more than offset losses.

European Bunds (Bonds) have taken a hit lately as many analysts are expecting a yield squeeze. The ECB has been busy hovering up Bonds, namely German Government Bonds, leaving little left over for Banks or Funds to use as collateral at clearing houses. This may have the reverse effect on rates sending yields higher and further pressuring the ECB for an interest rate rise.

The USD Index drifted lower through Asian and European trade before bouncing back to where it started the day during the otherwise closed US session. Price remains buoyant and I expect that it will continue to be as long as data points to resilient inflation and bond prices continue to be under pressure. The EURUSD traded in tandem to the USD but in revers as price initially rallied before falling late. The pressure remains well and truly down with Sellers in control and may look to test into 1.1180 today. The GBPUSD took a hit at the start of the European session to push down into new lows. The move lower is now anchored at 1.3351 and expected to continue lower after Bailey talked down interest rate guidance…which traders took as ‘rates will remain on hold’. The AUDUSD took a hit at the start of the European session also and pushed into previous lows around 0.7184. Price managed to consolidate around the level and continues to be under pressure. Expecting that price will look to flush into 0.7180 to clear out some stop losses. The USDJPY pretty much did nothing for the session from the open of Asian market trade. Price held the highs but had no reason to move either way as traders took the day off.

SPOT GOLD drifted higher into resistance around 1796 before sellers edged back into the action to cap the grinding rally. Still watching the 1781 level to hold as support so looking for buyers to build a higher low and start the squeeze on sellers. Price may be contained today with the US having a shortened session into the weekend. Crude Oil had a lacklustre session to chop around between 77.80 and 78.54. Price action was quiet but happy to hold recent highs. Watching to see if buyers continue to hold the highs today for another squeeze higher into the weekend. Copper pushed lower as expected off the recent zone around 4.4700. The move lower was recent buyers locking in some gains in a quiet session. Expecting that this move down may continue today if the 4.4175 level can not hold price up.

Cryptocurrencies found buyers to spike higher as the action was led by Ethereums push up through 4400. Bitcoin worked its way up through $58K but may find some sellers today into $60K. Bitcoin is currently trading at $58983.30 up 2.77% while Ethereum is trading at $4522.90 up 6.26% and Ripple is at $1.0531 up 2.59%.

The ASX200 swung between gains and losses yesterday but in the end the bulls came out on top as the Index ended up 7.9 points to 7407.3. The main support for the index came in the IT, Metals and Mining and Resources sectors. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 742 to 664 and 403 ended unchanged. The Hang Seng and the Nikkei were both well contained but ended the day with minor gains.

The ASX200 is expected to open flat to up points after the SPI200 was range bound overnight lacking any direction with the US being closed.


JPY Tokyo Core CPI 10:30am

AUD Retail Sales 11:30am

EUR German Import Prices 6pm

EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 7pm

USD Treasury Currency Report Tentative


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