Morning Jumpstart Macro View 3/12/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 52 pts to 7270
  • SP500 up 64.06 pts to 4577.10
  • NASDAQ Composite up 127.27 pts to 15381.32
  • Dow Jones up 617.75 pts to 34639.79
  • FTSE100 down 39.47 pts to 7129.21
  • DAX30 down 209.56 pts to 15263.11
  • GOLD futures US session (Dec) down $15.40 to $1766.20 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0425 to $4.2900 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $1.34 to $66.91 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.15 pts to 219.55
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7091
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1299
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3301
  • USDJPY trading at 113.1800
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.116 to 96.140

US indexes reversed some of the previous sessions losses in a broad market rally overnight. Bulls were supported by a move into values stocks over growth as Boeing lifted the DOW. There was also some bargain hunting on the open as unemployment claims came out better than expected lifting expectations for a good Payroll number tonight. Shares in Airlines, Hotels and Restaurants all did well to provide support and ease the concern for the Omicron Variant. Bond prices edged lower and Yields higher to keep the pressure on the inflation and rate rise narrative as Fed speakers push for faster tapering saying it is in the US’s best interest to start to think about fighting inflation. The DOW closed up 1.82% while the broader SP500 ended up 1.42% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.83% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes followed on from the US session and played catch up to the late session selloff. The DAX and FTSE were pressured from the open but later found buyers into the close once the US opened stronger than expected. ECB officials continue to argue that inflation in the bloc is transitory even as it hits 4.9% well above the 2% target. Unlike the US, they are sticking to the ‘transitory’ narrative and expect pressure will abate soon. Many analysts disagree and expect that it will soon affect wages and therefore underlying prices…which will be harder to come back from.

The USD Index again flushed lower before moving back up into the US close. Price seemed happy to remain in a holding pattern ahead of the key US employment data out tonight. Price is holding above the 96.000 level and below 96.200. Expect that if the jobs numbers come out strong then the dollar will lift on increasing rate rise expectations. The EURUSD was also well contained as the USD traded in a range. Price pushed up into 1.1340 to trap some buyers before selling back down into 1.1300. Price looks set to pressure down as a lower high is building but it will largely depend on what happens in the US tonight. The GBPUSD managed to work its way back up from the previous sessions lows. Traders were happy to hold below key highs and await US payrolls. Price is holding lower highs but also higher lows as price action contracts which points to some short term uncertainty. If the USD rallies then expect to see the Pound run lower. The AUDUSD was choppy and held in a tight range from the start of the Asian market session to the US close. Price had a slight bias lower being held down at 0.7112 and could not rally as US Indexes bounced back from the previous sessions selloff. The USDJPY was also contained and held up off previous sessions lows but also below highs. Traders are in a holding pattern awaiting some action into the USD. If price breaks up through 113.330 then expect a squeeze on recent sellers.

SPOT GOLD continued to pressure lower and take out the 1770 level as expected. Price remains in a trend down in the short term being anchored lower at 1780. If price holds below 1770 today then we may expect to see another push into new lows through 1760. Crude Oil fought back from a early spike lower through $64 a barrel and managed to end back around the $67 level. The flush and rejection into new lows may be a good sign that Oil is trying to find a base and may drag in some buyers to test the waters around lows and start to provide some support. Copper found some buyers to provide support and rally price to end on intraday highs. Still, copper remains in a longer term downtrend being anchored lower at the 4.3440 area and still looks tentative on any push higher.

Cryptocurrencies were also in a holding pattern for the session as bulls remain tentative. Bitcoin and Ethereum were largely range bound with neither side willing to commit while other crept lower. Bitcoin is currently trading at $56891.20 down 0.21% while Ethereum is trading at $4530.66 down 0.83% and Ripple is at $0.97981 down 0.66%.

The ASX200 started the day on the back foot yesterday as price opened into key support. Bulls managed to fend off sellers and make back the early losses into the close as the index ended down only 10.7 points to 7225.2. Shares in IT , Gold and Metals and Mining weighed most on the action and falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 915 to 461 and 392 ended unchanged. The Hang Seng also managed to fend off the bears and end with minor gains up 0.55% while the Nikkei ended down 0.65%.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 55 points as the SPI200 rallied to add to the day sessions late gains.


CNY Caixin Services PMI 12:45pm

EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 7:30pm

EUR German Final Services PMI 7:55pm

GBP Final Services PMI 8pm

GBP MPC Member Saunders Speaks 10pm

CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 12:30am

USD Non-farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate 12:30am

USD ISM Services PMI 2am


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