Morning Jumpstart Macro View 6/12/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 11 pts to 7260
  • SP500 down 38.67 pts to 4538.43
  • NASDAQ Composite down 295.85 pts to 15085.47
  • Dow Jones down 59.71 pts to 34580.08
  • FTSE100 down 6.89 pts to 7122.32
  • DAX30 down 93.13 pts to 15169.98
  • GOLD futures US session (Feb) up $21.20 to $1783.90 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0265 to $4.2725 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $0.24 to $66.26 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.10 pts to 220.64
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7001
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1315
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3236
  • USDJPY trading at 112.8000
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.014 to 96.172

US indexes ended the week with another negative session being dragged down largely by tech stocks. Employment data came in mixed with the number of new jobs missing the mark although the unemployment rate beat expectations and came in at 4.2% from 4.5% expected and 4.6% previous…pushing closer to ‘full employment’. Traders were concerned with slowing job growth as it points to a tightening market as highlighted by the lower unemployment rate. Data showed that people put in more hours which boosted aggregate wages and will help to support consumer spending to again pressure the inflation narrative. Bond yields on the US 10-year Bond fell over while the short dated bond yield held relatively steady suggesting more emphasis on rate rises sooner rather than later. The DOW closed down 0.17% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.84% and the Nasdaq closed down 1.92% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes came under pressure into the weekend as Omicron news headlines weigh on traders sentiment. The DAX and FTSE were pressured late in the session as US tech opened weaker. Traders will continue to be focused on the new Covid variant and a US inflation report for more clarity on Omicron impacts to economic growth.

The USD Index was choppy after the employment data release but generally held up under selling pressure into the US close. The number of net long positions for the week have spiked to the highest levels since Mid June 2019….highlighting a very bullish stance towards interest rate rises and the demand for US Dollars over other major currency pairs. Expecting to see the USD hold above the 96.000 level and again pressure higher. The EURUSD was also choppy after the data release but did trap some longs into the close to setup for a move lower in coming sessions. Expecting to see the downward pressure continue on the Euro and price to hold below 1.1320. The GBPUSD reacted lower after the payroll number even as the USD was choppy. The move suggests the lack of demand for the Pound as the BOE holds off on an interest rate rise. Price pushed into previous lows from a week ago so expecting to see some action from buyers and will be watching to see if it is enough to trigger a squeeze up through 1.3253. The AUDUSD saw demand for the currency disappear and price spike lower into major support around 0.7000. Expecting to see some profit taking and bargain hunting to provide some support around the zone but will not be discounting an extension below the level to trap some sellers and target some stop losses. The USDJPY was messy as price flushed a minor high and also later in the session a minor low. Bears weighed on the action late in the session and pushed prices to session lows into the close. Watching to see how sellers react around the 112.500 area.

SPOT GOLD had a strong session to hold a minor support level at 1766 and rally up through the 1780 anchor level. The move suggests that the recent run lower could be running out of steam in the short term and we may expect to see a squeeze on sellers. Either way, price continues to lack any clear longer term direction and commitment from bulls or bears. Crude Oil gave up early gains from the Asian and European sessions to move down into the close of the US. Price continues to flirt with lows and potential support around the 65.00 area. Watching to see how buyers react today to see if new demand can hold price up into support. Copper also gave up earlier gains to move lower into the close and continue to hold the longer term downtrend. Bulls will be looking to the key support area around 4.2350 to see if buyers flow in to provide some support.

Cryptocurrencies were smacked over the weekend on a major margin squeeze. Bitcoin fell over from $53K to $45K as margin positions were squeezed out of the action. The move had a serious flow on affect as other Crypto pairs were impacted although Ethereum did manage to bounce back and wipe off most of the losses. Bitcoin is currently trading at $48904.60 up 0.37% (last 24 hours) while Ethereum is trading at $4135.16 up 0.85% and Ripple is at $0.79519 down 5.11%.

The ASX200 opened stronger Friday but was quick to come under selling pressure to push into negative territory. It was not until late in the session that buyers made a fight back to lift prices back into the green with the index ending up 16.0 points to 7241.2. Shares in Energy, Financials and Resources helped support the index as rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 707 to 701 and 371 ended unchanged. The Nikkei ended Friday 1% higher while the Hang Seng was down 0.09%.

The ASX200 is expected to open up 10 points but only thanks to a last minute spike up off lows in the SPI200 in the last few minutes of the US session.


AUD ANZ Job Adverts 11:30am

EUR German Factory Orders 6pm

GBP MPC Member Broadbent Speaks 10:30pm


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