Morning Jumpstart Macro View 9/12/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 27 pts to 7390
  • SP500 up 14.46 pts to 4701.21
  • NASDAQ Composite up 100.07 pts to 15786.99
  • Dow Jones up 35.32 pts to 35754.75
  • FTSE100 down 2.85 pts to 7337.05
  • DAX30 down 126.85 pts to 15687.09
  • GOLD futures US session (Feb) up $0.30 to $1785.00 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0443 to $4.3838 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $0.56 to $72.61 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 1.38 pts to 227.13
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7173
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1347
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3216
  • USDJPY trading at 113.7000
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.445 to 95.925

US indexes took a breather from the previous bullish sessions and traded in a narrow range into the close. Shares were well contained from the open as traders held off from adding more risk to portfolios after such a strong start to the week. Pfizer said that they were able to neutralise Omicron in Lab tests with a three shot course of the vaccine and were able to deliver the upgraded vaccine in March 2022 if needed. US bond yields continued to pressure higher although the USD saw some profit taking and a move lower ahead of inflationary CPI numbers Friday. There remains some concern around the new variant and how governments will react to a new spread which may pause the Feds plans for interest rates…which was shown in the Dollar move lower. Bonds are still pointing to rate rises and positive jobs data out overnight supported the theme. The DOW closed up 0.10% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.31% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.64% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes saw some risk off after the previous sessions strength, especially in the German DAX while the FTSE was contained on lockdown concerns. Both Indexes managed to hold onto recent gains and hover around highs.

Chinas Evergrande group hit a record low after missing debt payments and putting the company at risk of being Chinas biggest default. The news has largely been factored into the action but traders will watching intently for any flow on affect into other major property developers.

The USD Index was sold lower during the US session but continued to hold above the key 95.500 level. Bulls are mulling over the new covid variant and what the Fed may say in their last FOMC meeting for 2021 next week. Traders were happy to take some risk off the table on long positions although Bonds suggest that it will not be for long as it could just be a squeeze ahead of CPI Friday. If the inflationary CPI numbers come out better than expected, expect to see dollar longs support price. The EURUSD lifted and squeezed out sellers as the USD fell. Bulls took the opportunity to rally and clear out some sellers as price broke up through 1.1298. Price may be capped into 1.1380 today as the rally is extended and the USD holds above support. The GBPUSD took a hit during the European session on news that Britain could see tougher covid measures by Thursday even further lockdowns. Price spiked through support around the 1.3205 area but later rebounded as the USD fell. Watching to see if price holds below the 1.3260 area for another run lower. The AUDUSD continued to march higher as traders favoured risker currencies over safe havens. The Aussie has been on a charge since pushing into major support around the 0.7000 even level. There are a lot of sellers built up on the move down from 0.7550 which could easily fuel an extended move up if price does not hold back below 0.7170 today. The USDJPY moved up through 113.600 and weathered the USD weakness well which suggests that traders may feel that the USD will hold above support. The anchor to the move up on the USDJPY is around 113.320 so watching for buyers to defend the level and provide support around 113.600 today.

SPOT GOLD initially pushed up through 1788 to add to recent gains but found sellers into 1792 to halt the rally and back off from the level into the US close. The move up was well contained and suggests that bulls may not be ready yet to make a move higher. If 1775 comes under pressure today, we may see another test into the 1760 zone. Crude Oil was in a positive mood and added to recent gains although buyers were capped into the 72.90 level. Watching to see if the 70.90 area holds today and drags in more buyers for a push up through 73.00. Copper ramped up in the US session being helped by a weak USD. Price held the 4.3235 level which is the anchor to the move higher and may drag in more buyers for a push towards the 4.4700 area…but expect that this will largely depend on further weakness into the USD.

Cryptocurrencies generally continued to see lacklustre action and be range bound off lows. EOS found some interest to ramp higher ending up 16% while Ripple also put in a good effort. Bitcoin is currently trading at $50746.70 up 0.48% (last 24 hours) while Ethereum is trading at $4415.09 up 3.09% and Ripple is at $0.86814 up 6.77%.

The ASX200 had a big session yesterday to squeeze out any sellers that stood in its way. Price ramped higher right from the open and did not stop until the close. In the end the index ended the day up 91.5 points to 7405.4 with shares in the Metals and Mining, Resources and Telecom Services sectors leading the charge. Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones by 928 to 466 and 367 ended unchanged. The Nikkei managed to add another 1.42% while the Hang Seng ended the session flat to disappoint bulls.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 20 points after the SPI200 drifted lower off highs in overnight trade.


AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks 9:05am

AUD RBA Bulletin 11:30am

CNY CPI and PPI 12:30pm

EUR German Trade Balance 6pm

USD Unemployment Claims 12:30am

USD 30-yr Bond Auction 5:01am


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