Morning Jumpstart Macro View 10/12/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 10 pts to 7368
  • SP500 down 33.76 pts to 4667.45
  • NASDAQ Composite down 269.62 pts to 15517.37
  • Dow Jones down 0.06 pts to 35754.69
  • FTSE100 down 15.79 pts to 7321.26
  • DAX30 down 47.83 pts to 15639.26
  • GOLD futures US session (Feb) down $10.00 to $1775.50 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) down $0.0828 to $4.3107 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $1.88 to $70.48 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 1.77 pts to 225.36
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7147
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1290
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3218
  • USDJPY trading at 113.4700
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.359 to 96.237

US indexes saw another bout of selling come into the action being led by tech and energy stocks. Traders were happy to lock in some gains and take some risk off the table after the recent rally and ahead of the CPI number later tonight at the start of US trade. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) talked up interest rate rises saying that ‘countries do not have the space to keep monetary policy very loose as inflation builds’. This will make the inflationary CPI number in the US a big focus which was shown overnight by the hit to growth stocks ie FAANGs. A hotter than expected number for CPI will strengthen the case for more aggressive monetary policy tightening and put further pressure on growth stocks, tech and therefore the broader market. The DOW closed down 0.01% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.72% and the Nasdaq closed down 1.71% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes moved lower as tech and energy stocks weighed on markets. Traders were again concerned (according to news wires) with the Omicron and the effect it will have on the Global recovery. Expecting that it will have a bigger effect on supply chains and therefore inflation and pressuring the ECB into changing their stance on rate rises.

The USD Index was bought up all session as the action looks more and more like a long squeeze ahead of the CPI numbers later tonight. Focus remains on inflation especially after the IMF comments on rising global inflationary pressures. The USD flushed below the 96.000 level before bouncing back into the close. Watching to see if price can continue to push up through 96.378 and further pressure sellers into the CPI data release. The EURUSD gave back the previous sessions gains and took a hit on the back of the USD rally. It will be interesting to see if the Euro decouples with the USD movements if European inflation concerns start to increase….but ECB will need to hint at the rising pressures next week. The GBPUSD creeped back down into previous session lows before finding some support from bulls and rallying into the US close. Watching to see if the Pound reacts to IMF comments and tests into the 1.3240 level today after holding up off 1.3180. The AUDUSD played out to play and pushed up into the 0.7170 zone before seeing some risk aversion trading and moving lower off the level. Watching to see if the 0.7160 zone holds and brings in sellers for a move down through 0.7135. The USDJPY moved down into the 113.320 anchor to the recent move up even as the USD found some buyers. The dollar strength may have been offset by some JPY buying but expecting that buyers are just awaiting the CPI number tonight before taking some action. Expecting to see price hold up above the 133.330 zone today but may see stop losses targeted below in a flush of the level.

SPOT GOLD saw another grind lower and bulls frantically fend off selling into the 1775 area. Prices are still edging lower so may see the 1775 level continued to come under pressure today as long as the 1780 levels holds price lower. Crude Oil managed to flush up through 73.00 to clear out some stop losses before rolling over under Omicron pressure and demand concerns. Price was sold lower right into the US close and looks set to test into the 69.00 zone. Copper failed to add to the previous sessions rally and, like oil, rolled over to pressure lower. Key level to hold for bulls is 4.3000 but if sellers defend 4.3375, then expecting to see lower levels.

Cryptocurrencies took a hit as bears come out to play again. Prices struggled across the board to regain the lost ground from the weekends margin selloff and recent buyers seemed to feel nervous and happy to exit some long positions as the USD rallied. Bitcoin is currently trading at $47900.50 down 5.32% (last 24 hours) while Ethereum is trading at $4145.59 down 6.05% and Ripple is at $0.86215 down 0.72%.

The ASX200 yesterday retraced some of the rally from the previous session to end the day down 20.9 points to 7384.5. The sectors coming under the most pressure were Energy, Consumer Discretionary and IT. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 690 to 655 and 407 ended unchanged. The Hang Seng made up some lost ground ending up 1.08% while the Nikkei was down 0.47%.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 20 points after the SPI200 edged lower along with the European and US markets. Expect that the SPI200 was held up above 7363 to set up for a flush lower on the open today.


JPY PPI 10:50am

EUR German Final CPI 6pm

GBP GDP, Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production 6pm

EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks 8:05pm

USD CPI Data 12:30am

USD Consumer Sentiment 2am


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