Morning Jumpstart Macro View 13/12/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures up 13 pts to 7366
  • SP500 up 44.57 pts to 4712.02
  • NASDAQ Composite up 113.23 pts to 15630.60
  • Dow Jones up 216.30 pts to 35970.99
  • FTSE100 down 29.48 pts to 7291.78
  • DAX30 down 15.95 pts to 15623.31
  • GOLD futures US session (Feb) up $6.40 to $1783.10 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) down $0.0385 to $4.2945 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) up $0.73 to $71.67 a barrel
  • CRB Index up 0.55 pts to 225.91
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7172
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1313
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3273
  • USDJPY trading at 113.4400
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) down 0.197 to 96.055

US indexes ended the session with gains Friday to cap off a very strong week. All three major Indexes spiked higher in the final minutes of trade with the SP500 ending with a new all time closing high which was supported by tech companies. CPI numbers showed the strength in inflation as numbers, although coming out in line with expectations, hit the largest annual increase in nearly four decades. The market seemed to take it in its stride but expect they will focus on what the Fed has to say at its upcoming FOMC meeting Thursday. Shares were supported on the open by a fall in bond yields as traders may have factored in a stronger CPI number and were forced to take some risk off the table. The DOW closed up 0.60% while the broader SP500 ended up 0.95% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.73% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes had a contained session into the weekend with the DAX and FTSE both range bound for most of the session. The FTSE was weighed down into the close by some disappointing GDP numbers and then later the US CPI numbers. The GDP numbers showed that the UK barely grew in October and any new growth will be difficult considering new lockdowns.

UK may soon be back into lockdown again due to the new Omicron variant which will pressure the FTSE into the new year. New restrictions have been re-introduced as the new variant numbers are on the rise and pressuring hospitals. Expect that the news will affect the European open and may weigh on markets today.

The USD Index moved lower after the CPI data release as many were obviously factoring in a stronger than expected number. Price gave up earlier gains to end the session on lows slightly above the 96.000 level. The number has been viewed by some analysts as a potential ‘peak’ number rather than showing inflation is still on the rise. Markets took it as a positive but expect that this will depend on what the Fed has to say on Thursday regarding the pace on potential rate rises. The EURUSD found some love from buyers after the US data release and pushed up off lows and through the 1.1300 level to halt the short term downtrend. Price has largely been range bound between 1.1373 and 1.1240 since late November and expecting this range to hold the action until Thursday FOMC meeting may bring in some USD volatility. The GBPUSD was weighed down early by the weaker than expected GDP numbers but was later buoyed by the USD selloff into the US open. Watching to see if price can add to Fridays gains today and push into the 1.3288 zone or whether sellers jump into the action and squeeze out some buyers on a push lower. The AUDUSD pushed back up into the previous sessions highs as the 0.7135 level held an early test from sellers. Price does look buoyant and suggests that we may see a decent push up from current levels into the years end. The USDJPY gave up early gains once the US CPI numbers were released and the USD moved down. Price pushed back into support around 113.330 and looks set to add to the move lower today to test into 112.800.

SPOT GOLD initially flushed the 1772 area before jumping after the CPI data release and the USD selloff. Price spiked higher into 1786 before settling into the US close. Watching to see if bulls can extend on the gains and test into 1793 where I expect sellers will defend the level…but will largely depend on what the USD does. Crude Oil lifted up off the previous sessions lows but did not share the same enthusiasm for the CPI number as the share markets. Price gains were capped into the $72 area but may be looking to test back into $73 if the $71 level can hold today. Copper gave up early gains from the European session to move down through support into the US close. This was against the flow of the weaker USD suggesting that bulls continue to struggle and price wants to test into the 4.2090 zone in coming sessions.

Cryptocurrencies generally worked their way higher over the weekend after a weak end to the week. Prices generally are holding the recent downtrends after the margin induced selloff but have spent some time building a base if bulls can put in the work to hold today. Bitcoin is currently trading at $50288.60 up 3.54% (last 24 hours) while Ethereum is trading at $4154.12 up 3.47% and Ripple is at $0.85288 up 3.03%.

The ASX200 ended the week with some choppy action 7350 Friday and spent all session in the red. At the close the index was down 31 points to 7353.5 with shares in Healthcare, Energy and IT weighed most on the market while Utilities and Consumer Staples ended with minor gains. Falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 717 to 641 and 381 ended unchanged

The ASX200 is expected to open up 15/20 points after the SPI200 held up off support into the US close Friday. We may see a contained open if the UKs lockdown weighs on the action.


JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index 10:50am

GBP BOE Financial Stability Report 6pm

GBP FPC Meeting Minutes and Statement 6pm

EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 8pm


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