Morning Jumpstart Macro View 14/12/21

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  • SPI200 (Dec) overnight futures down 41 pts to 7339
  • SP500 down 42.99 pts to 4669.03
  • NASDAQ Composite down 217.32 pts to 15413.28
  • Dow Jones down 320.04 pts to 35650.95
  • FTSE100 down 60.34 pts to 7231.44
  • DAX30 down 1.59 pts to 15621.72
  • GOLD futures US session (Feb) up $2.90 to $1787.70 an ounce
  • COPPER futures US session (Comex Mar) up $0.0070 to $4.2935 a pound
  • OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jan) down $0.48 to $71.19 a barrel
  • CRB Index down 0.56 pts to 225.35
  • AUDUSD trading at 0.7132
  • EURUSD trading at 1.1287
  • GBPUSD trading at 1.3212
  • USDJPY trading at 113.5800
  • USD Index US Session (ICE Dec) up 0.241 to 96.315

US indexes sent lower from the open as Fridays gains were reversed in a risk off tone ahead of the FOMC meeting. Markets opened weaker and felt negative sentiment on the Omicron variant and Inflation concerns weigh on the action. Still, prices for the three major US Indexes are consolidating around highs as traders weigh up what the Fed may say regarding inflation and tapering and what that may mean to the interest rate rise timeline. FAANGs were generally lower although Apple is slowly closing in on becoming the first $3 Trillion company in market cap. Seven of the eleven major SP500 sectors were lower with only defensives including Consumer Staples, Utilities and Real Estate managing to end in the green. Bond prices edged higher in the US session as traders will be re-positioning ahead of Thursdays FOMC statement. The DOW closed down 0.89% while the broader SP500 ended down 0.91% and the Nasdaq closed down 1.39% for the session. In Europe, major Indexes were mixed with the DAX brushing aside early strength to end flat while the FTSE fell from the open being weighed by covid restrictions.

The USD Index reversed Fridays move lower but failed to get up through 96.430 to break the current contraction in price. The Dollar continues to hold lower highs and higher lows as buyers and sellers come to a point of agreement awaiting more news from the Fed. Expecting that price will again flush lower to clear out some buyers but hold above 96.000 as traders remain caught between Omicron concerns and Inflation pressures. The EURUSD pushed back into support around 1.1260 as the Dollar rallied but did react up off the level once the dollar was capped. The Euro continues to look heavy and is struggling to get a strong bid as the ECB hold back from tapering and the US Fed may accelerate tapering. If the 1.1320 zone holds price down, then expecting to see another drive lower into support. The GBPUSD had a choppy session to swing between gains and losses before ending on session lows as the USD rallied. Rate rises are off the cards for the Pound in the near future as the UK battle with an Omicron spread so the Pound is reflecting the current negative sentiment. Expecting to see price drive lower into the 1.3180 area today. The AUDUSD failed to kick higher and fell from the start of the European session as risk sentiment waned. Price may be flushing out some recent buyers to clear the way for a rally but we will need to see a higher level hold on the lower timeframe potentially above the 0.7110 area. The USDJPY again held a push into the 113.300 area early in the Asian market session. Although price is choppy and range bound, if it can hold above the 113.300 area, then expect a move up as the USD finds strength. Expecting that price will hold between 113.300 and 113.900 into the FOMC meeting.

SPOT GOLD had a messy session as price was capped into 1792 resistance but was also held up off 1782. Expecting that price will hold below the 1792 level ahead of FOMC especially if the USD remains buoyant. Price may look to flush out some buyers on a spike lower but I do expect that price action will remain indecisive in the near term. Crude Oil rallied early into the $73 level before finding more sellers to pressure price lower. Expecting to see a flush lower as negative sentiment on Omicron and rate rises weigh on price in the short term. Copper again gave up early gains to move lower and continue the short term move down. Price held a lower high at 4.3290 so expecting to see more pressure lower today potentially down through 4.2775.

Cryptocurrencies took another beating as negative sentiment weighs on the action. It was a selloff across the board on comments from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler regarding cryptocurrency regulation. Bitcoin is currently trading at $46474.50 down 7.55% (last 24 hours) while Ethereum is trading at $3739.51 down 9.81% and Ripple is at $0.76539 down 10.04%.

The ASX200 started the session with a rally yesterday only to give back some gains into the close to end the session up 25.8 points to 7379.3 around 37 points off the days highs. Shares in Metals and Mining, Resources and Energy led the gains while financials came under pressure as falling stocks outnumbered advancing ones by 700 to 677 and 395 ended unchanged. The Nikkei ended the session up 0.71% while the Hang Seng fell in the second session to give back early gains and end down 0.17%.

The ASX200 is expected to open down 35 points after the US gave back Fridays gains and the SPI200 followed the action lower.


AUD NAB Business Confidence 11:30am

JPY Revised Industrial Production 3:30pm

GBP Claimant Count and Unemployment Rate 6pm

EUR Industrial Production 9pm

USD PPI Data 12:30am

NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks 6am


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