Refer to charts for comments on expected price action. Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN.
The end of the quarter pump came to a halt as indexes went risk off as they refocus on inflation and Ukraine concerns. The three major US indexes took a bit an hour before the close to end on session lows. Expecting the Asian session to be negative into the weekend and ahead of US employment Data. Weaker oil prices may ease inflation concerns if the consensus is further weakness.
The SPI200/ASX200 followed the US markets lower into the close to extend on the sessions losses. There were a lot of long positions caught off guard (previous sessions have been ramped into the close) and had to close or get stopped out below support levels. Expecting to see another flush on the open and then some bargain hunting and drift higher. The DOW broke down out of the recent range and moved through 34892 into the US close. There is further potential support for buyers to lean on at 34625 but we will need to see some failed rallies before heading into the level. Expecting to see a squeeze on shorts and flush into 34892 before I expect to see more weakness. Hang Seng pushed lower and had a late surged into the US close when the Futures markets closed (CFD price fell with the DOW). Buyers have a few support areas to watch with the first at 21639 then down to 21535. If we see an early flush higher I will then be looking for a sell setup. If price just moves lower, then will have to work off a minor lower high for the opening drive. The Nikkei also found weakness which could grow into a bigger move lower into 27150. Ideally I would like to see an opening flush higher to clear some sellers and trap some buyers before a selloff and short entry setup.
Cryptos unwound the bulls as expected once the share markets were hit into the US close. Bitcoin pushed down below 46875 and ran straight down into 45400 which I expect to be tested today. If it does not, will probably see a grind up and then dump tonight once the US markets kick off. Ethereum looks set to hold a lower high off 3254 which could lead to another leg lower.
Spot Gold spiked into 1950 before failing lower. Will be watching for a higher low to build for a move up and potentially into 1968…may come under pressure if the USD finds strength but any safe haven buying into Gold will probably offset dollar strength…may be time for safe haven bulls to provide some support.
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Hang Seng Index