Trading Plan for the days action 13/05/22

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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below.

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 13/05/22 (as at 7:30am AEST)

US index fended off another solid down day thanks to a late rally where the DOW ran up nearly 500 pts (1.56%) and the Nasdaq around 250 pts (2.1%). Expecting that this was due to intraday shorts covering and the algos taking advantage of the move to squeeze prices higher. The major trend remains down but starting to get extended which I expect will see some bargain hunters come out to play. The move down has been well controlled which could really mean anything…a setup for another leg up or major players edging out of portfolios and moving funds into bonds which are more attractive with higher yields. Continued energy supply issues in Europe is helping support the Oil price while the USD continues to search for fair value and move higher after a stronger than expected CPI number.

Consumer sentiment Data is out tonight in the US which could add some chop to the market.

The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 5/10 points as the SPI200 held support in a choppy range bound market.

SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures down 5 pts to 6911
SP500 down 5.10 pts to 3930.08
NASDAQ Composite up 6.72 pts to 11370.96
Dow Jones down 103.81 pts to 31730.30
FTSE100 down 114.32 pts to 7233.34
DAX30 down 89.00 pts to 13739.64
GOLD futures US session (Jun) down $29.10 to $1824.60 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) down $0.1233 to $4.0857 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jun) up $0.42 to $106.13 a barrel
CRB Index down 0.84 pts to 304.06
AUDUSD trading at 0.6856
EURUSD trading at 1.0382
GBPUSD trading at 1.2199
USDJPY trading at 128.4000
USD Index US Session (ICE Jun) up 0.931 to 104.805

CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 13/05/22

The SPI200/ASX200 moved lower during the day session and than managed to find some support through he overnight trading. Lower highs continue to hold but we may be seeing the start of some contraction back up after the recent selloff. The 6874 (SPI200) and 6887 (ASX200) zones need to hold today to see some bargain hunters provide some support. If not, then looking for lower highs today for short setups. The DOW was another choppy mess as I expect that the volumes are like and algos are taking advantage to chop traders in and out of the action. Prices rallied hard into the close but for now remain in a downtrend. If price tests into 31930 and holds, then looking for a lower high. The US Tech 100 found a minor RTF (Double bottom) around 11700 which dragged in some intraday buyers off the level. The key level for bears is around 12150 so any failure below the zone will see further selling pressure to attack recent lows. Hang Seng again rejected a move into support around 19170. Price did bounce but continues to find sellers and hold lower highs. Watching the 19487 level and for any flush back into 19170. The Nikkei pushed below 25800 during the day session and was then generally range bound between 25800 and 25565 lows. Expecting to see a flush higher…as has happened alot on the opens…and then for price to fade back down into the close. The DAX Index managed to hold up off the 13495 level and is looking rather bullish on the 30min timeframe. The longer term trend is down but we may see a push up into 13835 before another move down. The UK 100 Index has held a major RTF (Double bottom) at 7160 which may attract some bulls back into the action. If price can hold an inside level around 7186 then expecting to see a run up into 7272 and potentially higher.

Cryptos remain under pressure but the question is whether we will see a bounce after the big boys…Ethereum and Bitcoin…have flushed major lows. Bitcoin smashed through the $30k mark spiking down into the 25500 zone before bouncing. The $30k level is still the line in the sand as we may see a retest and then fail which opens the door to a much bigger selloff. If not, then back and fill up will be support by some crypto enthusiasts going bargain hunting. Ethereum flushed down into 1716 and reacted back up but we may be seeing another higher low starting to hold. Expect that today may be choppy still and buyers may drift into the crypto expecting the US share market to bounce.

Spot Gold continues its move lower as the USD rallies. This has been to the surprise of Gold Bugs and Inflation hedges as gold fails to find a safe haven bid in the recent share market sell off. I feel that Gold could really take a major leg down if it does not hold current levels as the Daily Double top weighs on the action. Crude Oil continues to edge higher as the energy problems persist in Europe. Price momentum is fading into 107.55 so we could see some sellers come into the action for a move lower. Expect that this will depend on what happens next between Europe and Russia. USD Index moves well above 104 to triggers selling into USD based pairs. The Euro cracked below a key level which probably added to the USD buying pressure. As long as the dollar holds above 104.350, then the trend up remains intact.

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SPI200 Index