Trading Plan for the days action 16/05/22

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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below.

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 16/05/22 (as at 7:30am AEST)

Bulls came out to play and go bargain hunting into US indexes as prices opened strong and never looked back. The action followed on from bullish Asian and European sessions where the action was dominated by buyers looking to chase prices higher. Tech stocks led the charge in the US with the Nasdaq ended the day up 3.82% dragging the SP500 and DOW along for the ride. Question is now whether the rally is a ‘bear market bounce’ or the start of a new leg higher. I feel that the action was again dominated by intraday traders with the bulk of funds remaining on the sidelines for now in a longer term risk off environment. Intraday swings have also been bigger than usual due to the lack of volatility and conviction from either side. The weight of Inflation and rate rises will continue to weigh on global markets longer term and we can expect more of the same ‘swings and roundabouts’ in the short term action.

The ASX200 is expected to open UP 50 points after a solid US session from the SPI200 to follow on from a positive ASX session to close out the week.

SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures up 54 pts to 7110
SP500 up 93.81 pts to 4023.89
NASDAQ Composite up 434.04 pts to 11805.00
Dow Jones up 466.36 pts to 32196.66
FTSE100 up 184.81 pts to 7418.15
DAX30 up 288.29 pts to 14027.93
GOLD futures US session (Jun) down $16.40 to $1808.20 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) up $0.0668 to $4.1673 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jun) up $4.36 to $110.49 a barrel
CRB Index up 4.52 pts to 308.58
AUDUSD trading at 0.6940
EURUSD trading at 1.0412
GBPUSD trading at 1.2262
USDJPY trading at 129.2200
USD Index US Session (ICE Jun) down 0.387 to 104.510

CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 16/05/22

The SPI200/ASX200 added to the days gains and held the session highs into the US close. Markets are bouncing and finding some FOMO bargain hunting which I expect will continue on the open. Watching to see if buyers continue to hold higher lows or whether we see a flush lower prior to any continuation up. On a daily basis, the ASX is still extended to the downside. The DOW held above 31925 and is looking to break up through 32273 and test into 32455. Tech was the main driver of Fridays rally but is extended so may see some contained action tonight. Watching the DOW to hold a lower high off 32455 after a grind higher in Asian and European trade. The US Tech 100 held a higher low at 12227 and is set to extend on the gains into resistance at 12540. I expect price to be ramped in Asian and European trade before finding some short term weakness off 12540. Hang Seng also held a higher low into the close around 19964. Price action is not extended so could continue to move up so I will be looking for an initial flush lower to clear out some buyers prior to a move up. The Nikkei move up well off 25705 and straight through a key level at 26350. This opens the door for further strength in the coming sessions so today, looking for 26485 to hold and flush lower and price to move up. The DAX Index is extended higher and looks set to test into 14185 through a ‘sneaky’ level at 14070. The momentum is up and I expect that the DAX may be choppy and hold onto the recent gains ahead of the US open. The UK 100 Index is extended higher and hold the anchor to the leg up at 7390. Expecting that many want to see a strong bounce and will not be in any hurry to sell ahead of the US open. Expect to see 7390 hold and price to grind higher.

Cryptos were positive in weekend trading and holding recent gains. Bitcoin is holding off the major $30K level for now which would be expected being such a major level. If price holds below 32300, then we may see another good leg lower. If it breaks above, then watching for BTC lovers to edge back in for a grind up. Ethereum is into 2160 which may provide some action. Watching for either a lower high off 2160 and a short or for more bullish action through…key level for me is the 2160 area.

Spot Gold remains under pressure as the Daily RTF (double top) is in play. Price may hold a minor inside level at 1807 today and bring in some buyers, but I would expect price to struggle on any push up into 1828. Longer term bulls are in trouble so I expect the pressure to remain down for longer. Crude Oil rallied through 107 and is now testing into $111.20 highs. The short term bias is up so watching the level to see if buyers decide to lock in some gains or whether we are going higher. Expecting the momentum up to continue and extend on the recent rally. USD Index gave up some minor gains as share markets rallied Friday. Price held an RTF at 104.920 and is now set to potentially test below 104.475 which could lead to more unwinding of longs. I expect that the move lower was due to safe havens being squeezed out but the longer term bias remains up due to inflation converns.

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SPI200 Index