Trading Plan for the days action 17/05/22

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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below.


The US was generally choppy from the open and held in a tight range both on the SP500 and Nasdaq while the DOW edged higher. There was a lack of conviction from both sides but I do expect some further bargain hunting as long as the Nasdaq can hold current levels. US Gasoline and Oil prices continue to surge which only adds to inflation concerns which may keep bulls from adding more risk to the markets. US Retail Sales data is out ahead of the coming US session and then Fed Powell will speak late in the session so all eyes will be on comments regarding interest rates. Traders may be holding off until then and then. Locally we have Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes which could bring in some volatility although markets have been choppy already.

The ASX200 is expected to open UP 14 points but could have been more as the SPI200 fell away from highs into the US close.

SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures up 23 pts to 7100
SP500 down 15.88 pts to 4008.01
NASDAQ Composite down 142.21 pts to 11662.79
Dow Jones up 26.76 pts to 32223.42
FTSE100 up 46.65 pts to 7464.80
DAX30 down 63.55 pts to 13964.38
GOLD futures US session (Jun) up $5.80 to $1814.00 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) up $0.0317 to $4.2067 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jun) up $3.71 to $114.20 a barrel
CRB Index up 7.01 pts to 315.59
AUDUSD trading at 0.6969
EURUSD trading at 1.0436
GBPUSD trading at 1.2319
USDJPY trading at 129.1300
USD Index US Session (ICE Jun) down 0.376 to 104.245


The SPI200/ASX200 gave back gains off highs as the US fell away into the close. Although the ASX is expected to open higher, I do not expect a convincing open and potentially a ramp both ways like yesterdays open as volumes are low. Will be looking for a lower high below support levels for a flush lower. The DOW saw a choppy session as price fell away from 32480 into the close. Intraday traders seem to be the main cause of the chop as investors are happy to remain on the sidelines as inflation concerns build. Powell will be speaking tonight so expecting further chop until then. The US Tech 100 was largely range bound for the session and is again starting to look heavy. I will be looking to see if price can hold a lower high prior to any short opportunity which I do not expect to play out until at least the Retail Sales data release or later when Powell speaks. Hang Seng edged its way back up after the day sessions early selloff. Price pushed back up into resistance around 20130 which will be the key zone for the open. The Underlying Index is trying to hold a higher low so we may expect a flush higher on the open and then weakness again. The Nikkei was rangebound from around midday yesterday between 26430 and 26680 as price lacked conviction either way. Both bulls and bears seem to be waiting for the US and are unwilling to commit until the picture is clearer so for now I expect further intraday chop but bias down for today looking for a lower high. The DAX Index gave back early gains from the open but did hold up off 13840 which is could be a higher low. The minor RTF at 14042 may drag in some sellers although the DAX is looking stronger than most indexes as this stage. The UK 100 Index found sellers around 7512 after flushing above 7480 in a relatively strong session. Inflationary CPI numbers are out tomorrow night which could keep any further bullish action above 7512 to a minimum. For now the bias is up but momentum is slowing so watching for a lower high off 7480.

Cryptos faded from a strong start to the session yesterday and gave back gains from the weekend trading. Bitcoin is holding around $30K and could go each way from here so watching for either a higher low or lower high prior to an entry…but my bias is up. Ethereum is also holding around a level at 2039 from which there is no clear price action at the moment. Unlike BTC, price could flush lower which may not be good for Bitcoin around the $30K zone.

Spot Gold had a push up into 1828 before finding some sellers. I expect that the rally is more due to short covering than a new leg higher so watching the 1828 zone today for more action. Price is extended and Momentum rolling over so we may get a squeeze lower. Crude Oil continues to ramp higher as price breaks above previous highs around 111.20. Price is extended in the near term but could easily go higher towards daily resistance around 116.60. USD Index edged lower as buyers are squeezed out ahead of Powells speech tonight. Expecting a further grind down today.

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SPI200 Index

ASX200 Index

DOW Index

US Tech 100 Index

Hang Seng Index

Nikkei Index

DAX Index

UK100 Index

Spot Gold

Crude Oil

USD Index



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