Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 20/05/22 (as at 7:30am AEST)
The US managed to fend off another selloff although prices hovered around the previous sessions lows in an ominous sign that another leg down could be on the horizon. Price action was largely range bound from the sessions open. Good thing for risk on traders is that safe havens eased with the USD moving lower and Bonds higher (yields lower). Concerns still remain which are weighing on markets. I expect that today and tonight will be telling as to whether we see another bounce or continuation lower. From major Index price action…it is an each way bet.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 5/10 points after the SPI200 fought back up off session lows around 60pts lower than the close.
SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures down 9 pts to 7048
SP500 down 22.89 pts to 3900.79
NASDAQ Composite down 29.65 pts to 11388.50
Dow Jones down 236.94 pts to 31253.13
FTSE100 down 135.35 pts to 7302.74
DAX30 down 125.46 pts to 13882.30
GOLD futures US session (Aug) up $25.40 to $1847.80 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) up $0.0980 to $4.2765 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jun) up $2.62 to $112.21 a barrel
CRB Index up 4.38 pts to 313.75
AUDUSD trading at 0.7049
EURUSD trading at 1.0584
GBPUSD trading at 1.2471
USDJPY trading at 127.8400
USD Index US Session (ICE Jun) down 0.947 to 102.915
The SPI200/ASX200 went lower early in the European session and managed to fight back into the close. Price is holding above a higher low while also holding just below resistance. Being a Friday, we could easily make our way back down so I will be watching the anchor to the recent uptrend to either hold or break for a bias on the days direction. The DOW was very choppy from the US open as algos were hard at work providing support and soak up selling pressure below 31295. This would mean that a rally could be on the cards tonight so the key level will be 31560 for the break higher. The US Tech 100 was also choppy and held between 11845 and 12050. If buyers can hold price above 11845 again tonight then we may see a break above 12050 to drag in buyers. Hang Seng rallied hard from the start of the European session to move up through and hold above 20380. Expect that the underlying index will open up over 300 pts which may trigger another push up into resistance over 100pts higher to close the previous sessions gap down. The Nikkei held between 26335 and 26555 during the US session. If price action holds and flush into 26355 on the open then I expect to see a rally up and through 26555. The DAX Index fought back from a weak open and rallied 250 pts off sessions lows. Like the DOW and US Tech 100, price looks set to squeeze out more sellers in the coming European session. Ideally, I would like to see an opening flush lower and then a higher low to hold for the buy setup. UK 100 Index fell over at the start of the European session before rallying into the US close. Price moved up 107 points off the session lows but held below resistance at 7353. The key level today into the European session is 7353 which the initial price action being key to decide whether the market wants to go up or down.
Cryptos initially moved lower and then rallied as the US indexes failed to selloff further. It seems that neither bulls or bears want to commit to a direction as the US holds around key lows. Bitcoin may look to break up to test into 30375 today if it can hold the higher low. Ethereum has paused the move up around the 2000 level but I expect it to work higher today off a higher low.
Spot Gold held the higher low and rallied up and through the 1828 level right from the start of the European session. The move up was due to the USD rolling over not from any safe haven bid so I would expect price to hold below 1853 today….unless the USD continues down tonight. Crude Oil flushed down into 103.50 before rallying straight up off the level. Price stalled up at potential resistance at 109.50 so watching to see if the rally can continue up into 112.70….but expect it will depend on the dollar move. USD Index took a hit below 103.232 and may look to extend down into 102.400 lows. On the longer term daily timeframe, the move is interesting as it could be a major rejection of daily resistance.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index