Trading Plan for the days action for 1/06/22

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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below.

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 1/06/22

The US markets were well contained for the session as Oil prices initially ramped higher into the $120 level before falling over on a wave of profit taking. The Oil rally was triggered by news of an EU phased banned on Russian oil imports. It seemed like it was ‘buy the rumour and sell the fact’ but expect that it will keep some support into the price action. That said, it also stokes the fears of higher inflation so the battle continues between stock market bulls and inflation bulls. A higher read on the US Consumer Confidence numbers helped support the Indexes from a selloff after the recent run higher. Momentum up on the major Indexes is easing so time will tell whether high inflation will again weigh on the action for a selloff or whether the continued economic numbers will support bulls. Bond yields in the US rallied and have opened stronger which may pressure markets today. Aussie GDP Data out at 11:30am AEST then some Manufacturing and Jobs numbers tonight in the US (refer to the calendar link below). US key employment data out Friday so I expect a ranging market over the next few days.

The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 25/30 points after the SPI200 continued on with the day sessions selloff in overnight trade.

SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures down 26 pts to 7186
SP500 down 26.09 pts to 4132.15
NASDAQ Composite down 49.74 pts to 12081.39
Dow Jones down 222.84 pts to 32990.12
FTSE100 up 7.60 pts to 7607.66
DAX30 down 187.63 pts to 14388.35
GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $8.90 to $1848.40 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) down $0.0500 to $4.2835 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jul) down $0.40 to $114.67 a barrel
CRB Index down 3.99 pts to 316.54
AUDUSD trading at 0.7176
EURUSD trading at 1.0734
GBPUSD trading at 1.2602
USDJPY trading at 128.7000
USD Index US Session (ICE Jun) up 0.500 to 101.805

CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 1/06/22

The SPI200/ASX200 opened for the European session and continued to find a lack of buyers and selling pressure into the US close. Price found support into 7177 on the SPI200 which held a few tests although price held lower highs into the level. Watching for a flush of 7177 and then for a tentative rally off support. Key will be to see if 7214 on the SPI200 holds or not. The longer term trend up on the ASX200 is holding but at a make or break zone. If support gives out, then we may see a decent selloff. The DOW rejected a flush into 32720 but held below 33220. The index and bulls may have more upside to come and look to hold a higher low for a move back above 33220. If price holds below this level, then expect a test into and potentially below 32720. The US Tech 100 also rejected a flush lower into 12540. The reaction from the zone up to 12752 is a good sign for short term bulls wo watching to see if a higher low can hold for a move into 12960. The same setup and price action occurred previously which led to a rally…so watching to see if history can repeat. Hang Seng initially moved up during the day session and buyers kept the pressure on until the US open. Price action saw some profit taking off 21600 but lacked bearish conviction. The underlying Index has extended up through previous highs and looking to go higher although it is extended so longs will need to be cautious. Ideally would like to see a ‘pop and drop’ to squeeze out some recent buyers. The Nikkei found weakness off resistance through European and US trade. Price held up off support around 27105 with a minor level holding at 27148. Minor resistance is at 27310 which may be tested on the open. Looking for further downside to clear out some buyers as the underlying index is extended and potentially holding a lower high. The DAX Index moved lower off 14595 as expected with buyers locking in some gains. Price looks to want to hold a higher low so watching for an extension up through 14470 on the European open. UK 100 Index held a lower high as expected off the 7633 level although the action was choppy. Price found some buying support through 7579 which will be the key level for tonight. Bulls know that the price action is extended but are defending selloffs for now. If price holds a lower high, then expecting a push below 7579.

Cryptos essentially chopped sideways in an uncertain market after the recent rally off major lows. Bitcoin held onto the gains and fended off some sellers so if price can hold above 30700 then we may see another spike higher through 32300. Ethereum is showing some good signs of holding above the 1909 level in the short term but remains in a downtrend. Bulls will need to convincingly break up through 2010 to drag in more buyers for a good run higher.

Spot Gold moved lower as expected when the USD started its push higher. Gold broke below 1842 and is currently holding a lower high that could keep the pressure on. Expecting to see a flush down into 1831 and will be watching the action on the USD for Gold direction. Crude Oil rallied up through Asian and European trade on EU and Russia news. Price moved into the $120 zone before the US open when the profit taking began. Price was hit pretty hard in US trade to move back down to 114.68. Expecting to see a minor rally before sellers jump back in to hold a lower high. The price is now on corrective mode from the $120 level so could get choppy. USD Index rallied off lows from the start of the Asian session which saw currency pairs reverse recent rallies. We may see more sellers take some gains off the table ahead of the US employment data Friday which would mean the lows could be in place in the near term.

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SPI200 Index