Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 3/06/22
US markets ramped higher from the open to brush aside the previous sessions negativity even as inflationary pressures increase. Oil rallied as inventories came in below expectations which adds to the inflation hype. Bond yields fell after employment data came in less than expected…many adding risk in the hopes that Employment data tonight will came in weaker meaning the Fed will not have to be aggressive on rate rises. If data continues to be mixed or hint at a cooling economy….markets will ramp higher…the data release tonight will be telling. With the economy at ‘full employment’ and running hot, hard to see that the continued inflation will not be a problem even if the economy cools. GBP Bank holiday today. Non-farm Employment Change in the US tonight.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 75 points as the SPI200 again does the heavy lifting in thin overnight markets.
SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures up 77 pts to 7245
SP500 up 75.59 pts to 4176.82
NASDAQ Composite up 322.44 pts to 12316.90
Dow Jones up 435.05 pts to 33248.28
DAX30 up 144.70 pts to 14485.17
GOLD futures US session (Aug) up $2270 to $1871.40 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) up $0.2300 to $4.5585 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jul) up $1.61 to $116.87 a barrel
CRB Index up 3.08 pts to 323.10
AUDUSD trading at 0.7265
EURUSD trading at 1.0749
GBPUSD trading at 1.2578
USDJPY trading at 129.8700
USD Index US Session (ICE Jun) down 0.769 to 101.760
The SPI200/ASX200 again had a rather contained day session only to ramp higher in the thinly traded overnight session. Price traded straight up and through 7204 and then 7242 on the SPI200. Expecting an enthusiastic open and then potentially a fade into the close being a Friday and with US key data release tonight. I expect that the 7242 level will be key today to either hold for another leg up or see price sell lower off the level. The DOW brushed aside the previous session to initially flush below 32720 to trap shorts and then ramp up through 33235….roughly 740 pts straight up. Will not be too concerned with the moves until the data release at 10:30pm AEST where I expect that the action will kick off. The US Tech 100 also flushed then ramped higher into the US close. I expect it to hold around the highs until the release when a higher than expected print on the employment release will send Tech lower while the reverse should bring in buyers…watch for the initial flush though to trap traders. Hang Seng managed to build a low and hold up off 20983 yesterday and then rallied on the European and US sessions. Price has extended into 21585 which I expect to see flushed on the open. As price will gap up into highs on the underlying index…expect the open to be choppy. The Nikkei also ramped higher after a lacklustre day session and the underlying index is expected to open up 30 pts or so. Price extended into the 27760 resistance level which may make for a choppy open. Looking for either a lower high sell off the level or price to confirm a higher low for a move up into 28040. The DAX Index pushed up into 14604 resistance into the US close. I expect to see the action flush up on the open of the European session after being contained around the level through Asian trade. We may see some risk off into the US release so I am happy to hold off prior to the number. UK 100 Index was closed and is closed again tonight for a bank holiday.
Cryptos were generally contained with Ethereum choppy sideways while Bitcoin grinded up. Price has opened a little stronger today but I am not convinced that there will not be more downside. Price failed to react up with the US share market rally so could be signalling concern from buyers…or at least a lack of buyers willing to jump into the action again (as they have been burnt before). Bitcoin is pushing up into 30700 so watching for a lower high and short into 28680. Ethereum is hovering around 1842 so also looking for a squeeze lower.
Spot Gold continued to find support off lows as the USD fell over ahead of the US employment data release. Price extended on the previous sessions gains into 1867 so I would expect to see some profit taking up at these levels or at least a squeeze lower prior to another leg up as price is very extended. Crude Oil ramped higher back up into 117.80 on a drawdown in US inventories (as the news says) although price was already moving up well before the numbers were released. Traders reversed shorts after the US economic numbers came in slightly weaker than expected…seems all markets are focused on the US economy and whether it is cooling or not. Watching for some profit taking up around 117.80 or an extension into 120. USD Index moved lower into the start of the European session and only extended on the losses after the data releases for the US. Price is down on potential support at 101.736 which I expect to see some action ahead of the employment release. Not much to do prior to the release but I do expect some volatility to come into the market, especially if numbers come out better than expected…the opposite to the overnight release of ADP data.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index