Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 9/06/22
US markets opened okay but then faded during the session to end lower. European data showed strength as GDP beat estimates which sets up for an interesting and potentially action packed ECB release. With Oil continuing higher and bonds continuing lower, market sentiment for higher rates is increasing and it seems that there is a distinct lack of buying for now. It does not seem that inflation is set to ease anytime soon which is not what Reserve banks want so may be forced into more aggressive action soon. The ECB release and statement will be telling which could follow on from a more aggressive RBA and point to a more aggressive US Fed Reserve. Higher bond yields will also mean that companies will have to refinance at higher rates which is not something many are accustomed too so expect some to be found wanting. China Trade Balance Data out during the Asian session and then ECB Policy Statement at 9:45pm AEST and US Unemployment Claims at 10:30pm AEST.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 40/45 points after the SPI200 was all one way action down in the overnight session.
SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures down 54 pts to 7079
SP500 down 44.91 pts to 4115.77
NASDAQ Composite down 88.96 pts to 12086.27
Dow Jones down 269.24 pts to 32910.90
FTSE100 down 5.93 pts to 7593.00
DAX30 down 110.63 pts to 14445.99
GOLD futures US session (Aug) up $4.40 to $1856.50 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) up $0.0090 to $4.4445 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jul) up $2.70 to $122.11 a barrel
CRB Index up 2.02 pts to 329.13
AUDUSD trading at 0.7191
EURUSD trading at 1.0716
GBPUSD trading at 1.2538
USDJPY trading at 134.2300
USD Index US Session (ICE Jun) up 0.225 to 102.550
The SPI200/ASX200 reacted lower off the 7164 level as expected yesterday and then sold off into the days close. Sellers continued the pressure into the overnight session with price pushing down into the lows made after the RBA statement Tuesday. The level may attract some buyers today but the short term trend is down so I feel it will be difficult for buyers today and we may see an extension below 7064 on the SPI200 if buyers continue to stand aside. The DOW held a lower high at 33135 on the US open and then ran lower into the close. Price remains in the longer term range between 33250 and 32570. Expecting the DOW to hold a minor lower high to continue the pressure down potentially into 32570. The US Tech 100 flushed above the 12715 level on the US open and then moved lower into the close. It will be interesting to see whether buyers again step in to defend the 12540 level or whether sellers finally clear the level on a strong push lower. I feel that the inflation and rate rise narrative continues to build which may see more pressure down. Hang Seng edged its way higher yesterday during the Asian session and then continued to move up against the flow of the European and US selling. The underlying index continues to trend higher searching for resistance so we may see more bullish action today and buyer support for a push up into 22440. The Nikkei was supported above the 28060 level but held below the 28230 area during the day in a lacklustre session. Bulls failed to get price above the 28230 level in the overnight session so I see the potential for a break back below 28060 today. The underlying index is stretched and extended into the 28320 level so may be primed for a squeeze on buyers. The DAX Index took a hit lower off 14585 from the start of the European session and buyers were happy to remain on the sidelines into the US close. Price may extend on the losses on the open and pressure into 14305 ahead of the ECB announcement. UK 100 Index saw a relatively choppy session weighed down by sellers. Price did break through 7573 but held a minor double bottom at 7551. If price can not get back above 7573 convincingly, then I expect to see the selling continue and a potential push into 7520.
Cryptos were rather uncertain overnight as price spiked both up and down but generally went nowhere. The pressure remains down in both Bitcoin and Ethereum although both held a higher low which may attract some more tentative buyers for a run higher…or, on the flipside, to trap them for a push into lows. Happy to stay out until the price action is a little clearer but do expect that any further downside into shares may bring in the crypto bears.
Spot Gold continues to move in tandem with the USD as price spiked up through 1856 before a rally into the USD sent Gold back below the level into the close. Expecting that we will see some action over the ECB statement tonight but for Gold to be contained below 1856 until then. Crude Oil continues to ramp higher as price action cleared the 119.70 area and extended on the gains up and through 120. Price may be targeting previous highs from March around 129/30. As long as higher lows hold the trend up remains in tact. USD Index held below the 102.770 level as expected but the volatility may ramp up tonight with the ECB expected to be more ‘hawkish’ towards interest rates. Expecting that if they are set to take a more aggressive stance towards rate rises then the Euro may find some buying which could see the USD below 102.244…and Gold higher.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index