Trading Plan for the days action for 10/06/22

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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 10/06/22

US markets opened relatively okay but the capitulated late in the session as sellers pushed hard into the close. The weakness was triggered again by rate rise fears after the ECB prepared to hike interest rates next month for the first time since 2011. Eurozone Bond yields spiked while US bonds kept pushing lower. USD rallied hard from the start of the US session and ended on highs ahead of the CPI number in the US tonight. Markets are starting to build some momentum to the downside with the ASX seeming to lead the charge. Oil eased but the uptrend is clearly still intact while Gold again followed the USD and moved lower. US CPI numbers out (Core CPI key) at 10:30pm AEST and the US Prelim Consumer Sentiment at 12am.

The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 65 points after the SPI200 continued to push lower in overnight trading along with the US markets.

SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures down 55 pts to 6964
SP500 down 97.95 pts to 4017.82
NASDAQ Composite down 332.04 pts to 11754.23
Dow Jones down 638.11 pts to 32272.79
FTSE100 down 116.79 pts to 7476.21
DAX30 down 247.19 pts to 14198.80
GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $3.70 to $1852.80 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) down $0.0867 to $4.3678 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jul) down $0.60 to $121.51 a barrel
CRB Index up 0.46 pts to 329.59
AUDUSD trading at 0.7096
EURUSD trading at 1.0618
GBPUSD trading at 1.2495
USDJPY trading at 134.3700
USD Index US Session (ICE Jun) up 0.759 to 103.305

CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 10/06/22

The SPI200/ASX200 was hit in the Asian session before bouncing back up ahead of the ECB. Prices then were all one way action lower through the US session and pushed into new lows. The trend is definitely down and could easily gather some steam today being a Friday. Still, I expect to see a squeeze on sellers ahead of any further downside action into the close. The DOW held a lower high at 32885 before falling apart late in the session to drop over 600 pts. Price ended down into 32250 which may hold today into the CPI release. Any buying off a higher low should be with a scalping mindset as prices could easily fall lower to 32060. The US Tech 100 did much the same as the DOW and held a lower high before taking a hit of 2.6%. Price action is in no mans land for me but I do expect to see an extension into 12090 so will be looking for a minor squeeze of sellers and a lower high to hold. Hang Seng had a big spike higher once the underlying index closed…which was unusual…to squeeze out the late sellers. Price then fell along with the US into 21415 which I expect will be flushed on the open. The index has been in an uptrend so watching to see if 21415 holds or fails. The Nikkei continued to rally into resistance at 28372 after the Index closed, and then fell over after the ECB statement. Price broke below 28060 which I expect to see tested on the open and then more sellers to enter the action for a push lower into 27893 and potentially below. The DAX Index initially held up above 14305 but then also fell apart to trade down into 14100 into the close. Watching to see how buyers react around 14100 but suspect the action will be contained ahead of the CPI release. UK 100 Index traded much the same as the DAX and initially held above 7520 before trading down into 7438 into the US close. Price action is a little extended but could easily go further if fear starts to take hold. Could see a squeeze on sellers ahead of CPI which will then determine the direction.

Cryptos held up okay considering the selling pressure into global stock markets and the rally into the USD. Still, the pressure remains down and lower highs are holding. If prices continue lower, then I expect it will only be a matter of time before capitulation into both ETH and BTC.

Spot Gold continued to come under pressure from the rally into the USD although may have found some safe haven bids to offset to sellers. Price is being held down at 1852 so watching to see if pullbacks higher get sold into again…and of course watching the USD. Crude Oil held up well under the pressure of the USD rally which shows that price is being driven by the supply/demand fundamentals which are not changing anytime soon. Price is hovering above 120.88 which I expect to be targeted to take out stops so will be watching for either a flush down into 119.70 or bounce and rally. USD Index rallied hard after the ECB statement on interest rates. Now the ECB is joining the rate rise party, bulls are getting nervous. Expecting to see some ‘back and fill’ lower ahead of the CPI number where it will be all about the data release.

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SPI200 Index