Trading Plan for the days action for 14/06/22

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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 14/06/22

No need to try and pick bottoms today…markets are in fear mode and are TRENDING DOWN!!

US markets have continued lower after Fridays strong CPI numbers spooked Global markets. Share markets are unwinding now so pressure is on bulls with the expectation that there is more to come. Gold remains far from a safe haven trade as price was dumped overnight thanks to a big rally into the USD. US bond yields are continuing to move higher both as a safe haven trade and as inflation remains high and bets are that the US Fed Reserve will be forced to be a lot more aggressive on rate rises. It is a complete risk off trade at the moment as Cryptos take a beating with margin unwinding expected to bite hard into Bitcoin and Ethereum (if it as not already) as many realise that they are on the wrong side of the market. Oil remains high as the fundamentals are strong enough to fend off the USD led selling pressure from bears. All eyes will be on coming data in the US…ie PPI and Retail Sales…ahead of the FOMC rate statement out 4am AEST Thursday. US PPI numbers out tonight in at 10:30pm AEST

The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN close to 300 points after global markets continue lower from Friday.

SPI200 (Jun) overnight futures down 183 pts to 6631
SP500 down 151.23 pts to 3749.63
NASDAQ Composite down 530.79 pts to 10809.23
Dow Jones down 876.05 pts to 30516.74
FTSE100 down 111.71 pts to 7205.81
DAX30 down 334.80 pts to 13427.03
GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $43.70 to $1831.80 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) down $0.0960 to $4.1985 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jul) up $0.26 to $120.93 a barrel
CRB Index down 4.37 pts to 321.44
AUDUSD trading at 0.6926
EURUSD trading at 1.0409
GBPUSD trading at 1.2134
USDJPY trading at 134.4300
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 1.037 to 105.050

CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 14/06/22

The SPI200/ASX200 will take a big hit on the open as it has to play catchup with the global index selloff. The SPI200 is being held down at 6669 but did find some buyers off 6607 (potentially just short covering into the close). Usually I would expect to see some bargain hunting after a US selloff and the ASX200 extending into support, but I will not be looking for a buy until a clear higher low has formed…bias is down and fear will be driving the markets in an irrational manner. The DOW is driving lower as lower highs held all the way down. The anchor to the move down is around 30910 so until this level is broken, I will not be looking for a buying opportunity. There is a big opportunity for a squeeze on shorts today but the anchor needs to be broken then a higher low hold…for now, bias remains down. The US Tech 100 is also under pressure as bears push price lower. The Anchor to the move down is around 11455 and price looks set to extend down into 11010 support. Like the DOW, the anchor down will need to break for a potential long and subsequent short squeeze. Hang Seng was rather contained to the downside…potentially into support around 20735. Ideally I would like to see an opening flush higher to trap some buyers before a selloff lower and short opportunity. Price action could easily work its way down into support around 19960. As of the close, the index is set to open down only 285 pts. The Nikkei continued the day sessions move down into the 26475 level. The underlying index is set to open down 475 pts and into a potential support level. Still, looking for an extension on the move down into 26130. The DAX Index continued lower into potentially support around 13295 where bulls will be hoping for the level to hold. Expecting some choppy action around the level once Europe opens for trade. Would ideally want to see a flush lower and then a buy opportunity off a higher low. UK 100 Index has also worked its way lower off major resistance. Price has extended into the 7167 level which may attract some bargain hunting. Will need to see a clear higher low for a buy…which I expect I would not hold for long and close at any sign of further weakness. If 7232 holds, then another leg down is on the cards.

Cryptos are under extreme pressure with Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking down through major support levels. Expecting to see more selling pressure dominate today as there is a lot of bullish sentiment and bag holders that could get unwound as margin calls bite portfolios. Watching for BTC to extend into 18370 and Ethereum to run below 1000.

Spot Gold suckered in some buyers on Friday on the idea of a safe haven trade. Overnight the buyers were squeezed straight back out of the action as price dumped into 1808 lows before reacting higher. If the USD continues higher then expect Gold to continue lower off a lower high. Crude Oil is the one resilient market that is fending off selling pressure. Price continues to hold above 117.80 support but is failing off 123 which I expect is the short term cap for now. If global markets continue to selloff, then a margin unwind will flow over into Oil also and see a squeeze on buyers. USD Index has rallied hard to push to new highs through 104.000. Price is extended but finding a big safe haven bid at the moment. As long as share markets and bonds continue to head south I expect to see the dollar bid higher.

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SPI200 Index