Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 16/06/22
Futures rollover on the SPI200 today so will be an extended open!!
US markets reacted positively not to the 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed, which was expected, but to the future pace of coming rate increases. The Fed dampened expectations of an aggressive rate rising cycle, as they would, to ease sentiment for a major selloff. The Fed has to balance fighting inflation and fending off a recession. Powell said that the next meeting would potentially be another 75 basis points but future hikes will not be as aggressive. Traders were happy with the fact that the Fed is taking rising inflation seriously. It seems that shorts across the board were squeezed as bond yields dropped and USD rallied. Currencies denominated in USD rallied hard with the AUD, Pound and Euro all spiking hard after Powells statement. Aussie Employment data out at 11:30 AEST and then its time for the UK interest rate announcement at 9pm AEST.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 25 points as the US reacted positively to the 75 basis point rate hike and pushed up off lows dragging the SPI200 along with it.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 24 pts to 6518
SP500 up 54.51 pts to 3789.99
NASDAQ Composite up 270.81 pts to 11099.16
Dow Jones up 303.70 pts to 30668.53
FTSE100 up 85.95 pts to 7273.41
DAX30 up 180.90 pts to 13485.29
GOLD futures US session (Aug) up $6.10 to $1819.60 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) up $0.0040 to $4.1605 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Jul) down $3.62 to $115.31 a barrel
CRB Index down 0.88 pts to 314.79
AUDUSD trading at 0.7006
EURUSD trading at 1.0444
GBPUSD trading at 1.2172
USDJPY trading at 133.8500
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.732 to 104.610
The SPI200/ASX200 pretty much went sideways in overnight trading until the US interest rate announcement. Price then flushed support around 6450 and rallied into the close along with US indexes. Price action is still holding a downtrend but may look to break higher into test 6569 today if 6481 holds on the SPI. The DOW chopped around the lows of 30646 before rallying into the close on Powells speech on the expected pace of rate rises. Expecting that the double bottom at 30170 may trigger more buyers into action for a bigger squeeze on recent sellers and move up….but also watching for another delayed reaction from share traders and flush lower after a bull trap is set and sprung. The US Tech 100 also flushed lower before a rally into the close. Price ended at a previous support level…now resistance…around 11660. I expect that there may be another bargain hunting leg higher although longer term, I do not expect a big leg higher in the face of rising rates and higher costs of debt. Hang Seng also kicked higher to add to the day sessions gains. Price pushed up into 21520 which I expect to see the day session opening zone. Watching to see if price can add to yesterdays gains potentially after a minor flush lower to build the higher low. The Nikkei retested the days session lows before rallying along with the rest of the major Indexes into the close. Price has since added to the gains in after hours trade so I expect to see a positive open and test into higher levels. The DAX Index worked its way up and off the 13295 level holding an inside higher low at 13420. Expecting to see more bullish action on the open of the European session and for price to push higher into the 13746 zone. UK 100 Index also edged its way higher from the start of the European session and ended into the 7321 level. With Interest rates due at 9pm tonight from the BOE, we may see some choppy action as traders position themselves for an accommodative reserve bank with respect to interest rates…it seems that Federal Reserves globally are all watching each other and do not want to rock the boat to trigger a selloff. Expecting to see an initial flush to trap some sellers and then a rally.
Cryptos continued to hover around the lows as buyers remain shy and happy to stay on the sidelines. Bitcoin held up off 20570 above key lows but below the anchor to the downtrend at 23130 (on the hourly chart). Expecting another flush lower at the least prior to any leg higher but suspect that there remains some nervousness around crypto. Ethereum also found some buyers into lows but failed to kick on with the rally into the share market. Price is being held down at 1273 so as long as this level holds, the trend remains down.
Spot Gold continues to have problems picking a direction and remains linked to the moves in the USD. The longer term Daily chart looks negative and set for another leg down while the shorter term is trying to engineer more buyers. Expecting to see 1831 hold to drag in more buyers for a grind higher. Crude Oil found some selling pressure to see bulls unwind some long bets and price to break down below $117.80 after the double top held at $123.00. Expecting to see more downside to come. USD Index moved lower after the Powell statement as bulls were forced to re-adjust long bets. I expect that there may be another squeeze lower through 104.670 which is a good sign for commodities and the Aussie Dollar.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index