Trading Plan for the days action for 23/06/22

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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.

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OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 23/06/22

US Indexes started the session well with a rally from the open although price action was heavy into the close. The Powell comments may have spooked investors as he highlighted the Fed Reserves commitment to bringing down inflation…which may be interpreted as meaning the Fed is going to be more aggressive with interest rate rises as inflation is not going to come down by itself. Still the major indexes in the US are extended and in ‘bounce mode’ until they push back below the EMAs (reference to the 30min charts). The USD is a little confused as price holds the highs between 104.985 and 103.800. Bond yields fell as bonds rallied which could be a good sign for share markets; that is if the buying is not safe haven buying; while Oil continued lower which seems like some longer term profit taking. German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI at 5:30pm AEST, Same For UK at 6:30pm and US Unemployment Claims at 10:30pm AEST. Powell testifies again around 12am AEST.

The ASX200 is expected to open UP 15/20 points as the SPI200 held support into the close. I expect that we will see some bearish action on the open as price held a major Double top around 6450.

SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 23 pts to 6412
SP500 down 4.90 pts to 3759.89
NASDAQ Composite down 16.22 pts to 11053.08
Dow Jones down 47.12 pts to 30483.13
FTSE100 down 62.83 pts to 7089.22
DAX30 down 148.12 pts to 13144.28
GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $0.40 to $1838.40 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) down $0.1005 to $3.9385 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Aug) down $3.33 to $106.19 a barrel
CRB Index down 4.35 pts to 304.65
AUDUSD trading at 0.6925
EURUSD trading at 1.0565
GBPUSD trading at 1.2264
USDJPY trading at 136.1600
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.216 to 103.995

CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 23/06/22

The SPI200/ASX200 rallied from the start of the overnight session after being sold lower again during the day session. Price held a double top at 6450 which I expect will pressure the market lower today…or at least hold the action down. Watching for a move lower from the open ideally after a flush higher to trap some buyers. (Refer the the members area for updated ASX200 charts). The DOW rejected a move up through 30698 during the session to end down around 30464. I expect that the rejection will trigger some sellers for a move down although longer term prices are extended and the 100 EMA is flattening…suggesting some chop to come. The US Tech 100 failed off 11660 and held a minor lower high into the close. Like the DOW, I expect the action to get choppy before it finds a direction but expect to see a squeeze lower today and into the US open. Hang Seng sold off during the day session and then found some buyers during the overnight session. Price held a minor double top around 21283 which could see some sellers jump into the action on the open. The underlying Index is under pressure and could hold a Daily lower high which means a lot lower prices to come. The Nikkei also held a minor Double top around 26438 after bouncing back from a weak day session. I expect to see price under some pressure from the open so will be watching for an early lower high and sell opportunity. The DAX Index is a little messy from a price action viewpoint. Price flushed through 13065 early in the European session before bouncing back on the US open. Momentum is set to roll back down so I will be looking for a lower high to hold. If not and price can hold above 13065, then a short squeeze is on the cards. UK 100 Index bears fended off an early rally into 7105 which led to some selling pressure into the US close. Price may range between 7038 and 7105 but I will be watching for a break below 7038 for a short setup as the pressure down mounts.

Cryptos are looking shaky and I expect that Bitcoin and Ethereum bulls will not be liking the price action. Bitcoin pushed back below the $20k level while Ethereum is holding lower highs. The move may be all part of a longer term basing pattern but the pressure is on cryptos at the moment and many are happy to lock in some longer term gains. All in all, I feel there will be a lack of buyers willing to jump back into the action after getting burnt on the run lower….meaning a grind lower may be the expectations to squeeze out more buyers.

Spot Gold remains a tough on to trade with choppy price action. Price found some buyers off 1824 for a spike higher above 1842. The spike has broken the downtrend from 1857 so we may see a higher low hold…especially if the USD heads lower. Crude Oil played out nicely to plan and smashed below the 108.78 level. The spike below 102.82 was met with some sharp buying to push back above the level so I will not be expecting another short yet until a potential lower high holds below 107.01. Price could start the process of squeezing out shorts above 102.82…so happy to watch for now. On the Daily chart, a major lower high has held which could see a decent unwind of longer term buyers. USD Index rejected a move up at 104.985 but also rejected a move lower around 103.800. I expect that buyers will continue to hold steady after the Fed highlighted inflation concerns although a higher may be in place. To me this would indicate longer term chop around the highs potentially between 105 and 101…we will see!

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SPI200 Index