Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 24/06/22
US Indexes ended higher after a mid-session while European Indexes (hit by weaker than expected PMI releases) could not recover from early losses. Powell pretty much repeated the same lines from the previous session and said that they are committed to ‘bringing down inflation at all costs’ which the market has largely factored into the action. Bond yields again fell with bonds rallying, although bond prices flushed into highs which is usually a sign that there will be a reversal. The USD is happy to hold highs and could be prepping for another push up. Copper took a beating ending down over 5% as manufacturing numbers were weak and economic numbers disappoint. All in all, Indexes are seemingly trying to find a short term base as easing yields help shares although the talk of recession is capping enthusiasm. UK Retail Sales 4pm AEST, RBA Lowe Speaks at 9:30pm AEST and US Consumer Sentiment Data at 12am AEST.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 10 points after an uncertain overnight session from the SPI200 as price swung between highs and lows.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 8 pts to 6416
SP500 up 35.84 pts to 3795.73
NASDAQ Composite up 179.11 pts to 11232.19
Dow Jones up 194.23 pts to 30677.36
FTSE100 down 68.77 pts to 7020.45
DAX30 down 231.69 pts to 12912.59
GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $8.60 to $1829.80 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) down $0.2047 to $3.7393 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Aug) down $1.92 to $104.27 a barrel
CRB Index down 7.96 pts to 296.69
AUDUSD trading at 0.6894
EURUSD trading at 1.0524
GBPUSD trading at 1.2260
USDJPY trading at 134.9600
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.179 to 104.160
The SPI200/ASX200 had a very choppy overnight session as price action took out both the day sessions highs and lows. The 6450 level again held and then a lower high (which is yet to be confirmed) is holding at 6428. I feel that the SPI200 may want to end the week on a positive note with expectations that the US has more short term upside. If so, the price will need to break up through 6428 and test into 6450. If 6428 holds, then expecting to see a grind lower into the close. (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts). The DOW also had a choppy session which looked dominated by short term intraday action. Price held above 30180 and below 30698. With the recent action slightly higher, I expect a minor flush lower and then a move up through 30698. If price instead flushes and then holds 30698, then watching for a selloff. The US Tech 100 was also rather choppy and range bound. Price rejected a move up through 11685 so watching for a squeeze on buyers and move lower. Hang Seng held a higher low yesterday around 21015 which triggered buyers into action for a move up into 21540. I want to see 21163 hold any potential opening flush lower, and for another leg higher ideally off 21295. The Nikkei held the 26015 level during the day session and then again overnight. Price struggled to find enough bulls though willing to move price higher. Watching for rice to potentially flush lower into 26015 and then drive higher up off the level. The DAX Index pushed below the 12955 level but did bounce back into the close. I expect that bulls will play catchup with the US close and move price action back above the 12955 level. If we see a higher low hold, then watching for a run higher ahead of the US session. UK 100 Index also pushed into a support level around 7000 which I will be watching to hold today. Longer term, price remains weak and could easily move lower…just looking for a short term bounce and squeeze on sellers as the US holds up off recent lows.
Cryptos are starting to find a base after yesterdays push lower was rejected by bulls. Bitcoins push below $20K was met with some buying although price may struggle with the $21K zone for now. Ethereum also found some buyers after a push lower. Price held 1051 and then a higher low at 1086. Expecting to see a grind higher at best as buyers are still a little shell shocked with the selloff. Even though both are moving higher, the move lacks any enthusiasm from buyers.
Spot Gold remains choppy and well linked to the USD price swings. Gold has support at 1824, which it closed the US session at, and resistance at 1845. Until the USD makes a clear break either way, expect gold to be locked into the current range. Expecting to see a flush lower potentially into 1815 and then for a bounce. Crude Oil held below $107.01 but did find some buyers off $102.82. Bulls will need to hold the 108 zone to fend off a deeper corrective move lower. Price action does look like it wants to find a base although further recession concerns could drive price lower. USD Index is holding some minor higher levels firstly at 103.923 and then 104.080. With the bulk or rate rise expectations already baked into the price action, I expect that 104.9825 will cap bullish action in the near term. On the flip side, fear is holding support levels (and longs) in tact. If share markets again drive lower then a safe haven bid may be supportive of the USD and higher levels…but for not I expect it to be range bound.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index