Trading Plan for the days action for 27/06/22

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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.

OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR MONDAY 27/06/22

US Indexes rallied straight from the open Friday following on from a strong Asian and European session. Stronger than expected Consumer sentiment and New Home Sales numbers gave the market an extra boost and the gains were held into the close. Expecting that the action was more attributed to an overdue bounce rather than a major change in traders sentiment. The Consumer numbers showed that people are still happy to spend and provide support to the economy. Copper prices have fallen while Oil also eases lower off highs which has been reflected in the US Bond yield fall and expectations for a less aggressive Fed Reserve on rate rises. Still, the trend for interest rates is up and higher rates means less money to come back into the share market over the longer term. The day fter trend day is usually followed by range bound action so for now, I expect to see a rather choppy session today as traders digest Fridays strong end to the week. Day 2 of G7 Meetings and US Durable Goods Orders at 10:30pm AEST.

The ASX200 is expected to open over 100 points after the SPI200 followed the US higher and extended up into resistance. The open will be difficult and hard to be a buyer after a strong gap up.

SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 103 pts to 6573
SP500 up 116.01 pts to 3911.74
NASDAQ Composite up 375.43 pts to 11607.62
Dow Jones up 823.32 pts to 31500.68
FTSE100 up 188.36 pts to 7208.81
DAX30 up 205.54 pts to 13118.13
GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $0.50 to $1830.30 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Jul) down $0.2025 to $3.7365 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Aug) up $3.35 to $107.62 a barrel
CRB Index up 1.86 pts to 298.55
AUDUSD trading at 0.6945
EURUSD trading at 1.0553
GBPUSD trading at 1.2268
USDJPY trading at 135.2300
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.297 to 103.895

CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 27/06/22

The SPI200/ASX200 was all one way action higher overnight as price was ramped straight up into resistance around 6568. I expect the open on the ASX will be choppy as prices will be extended and may need to squeeze out some buyers before any rally. Price action may extend into 6595 before squeezing lower and I do not expect another trending market so will be watching for short ‘scalp’ opportunities. (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts). The DOW also ramped higher and is hovering below 31600. Price is up but extended so I would expect to see some choppy action but prices to hold around highs into the US open. We may see a flush up into 31600 before a fade lower and some profit taking from buyers. The US Tech 100 also ramped higher Friday as markets bounced back from the recent selling. Price held higher lows into 12105 and the trend up is technically still in tact. If price holds above 11945 then I expect to see some continued pressure higher potentially into 12235. Hang Seng added to the day sessions gains and is holding the short term uptrend. Expecting to see a push higher from the open and move into 22155 so will be watching for an early flush lower to hold a higher low. The Nikkei was a controlled grind higher from the underlying index close lacking any clear long setup. The underlying Index is going to gap up on the open so I will be watching the reaction around 26925 to see if bulls are going to extend on the rally into 27155. The DAX Index held a higher low around 13110 and extended into 13245. The day after trend day generally is a range bound day so watching for short setups off 13245. Generally expecting to see a flush of 13245 and to trap some buyers before some bulls lock in gains and the action squeezes lower. UK 100 Index had a straight run up above 7190 and ended in no mans land for me. Longer term I would expect at least a higher low if we are to see mush higher prices through 7321. This would mean that some buyers need to be squeezed out on a minor move lower. Watching for a push back into 7190 for either failure or the level to hold.

Cryptos were well contained in comparison to the share market. Bitcoin held above 20750 in a relatively choppy market lacking any clear direction. In saying that, the trend is up so as long as the price holds above 20750, I would look for buys. Ethereum was clearer and made its way higher. Price held a higher low around 1186 which may be tested today.

Spot Gold flushed below 1824 but then bounced back as the USD come under pressure. Price has opened stronger so I will be watching to see if gold bulls can hold a higher low before going long above 1824….but this will depend on the USD. Crude Oil rallied up off 102.82 and tested into the 108.78 level before price eased lower into the US close Friday. Expecting to see a minor flush lower prior to any push higher which should be supported by potential USD weakness. USD Index is being pressured lower as price holds lower highs. The move down is in conjunction with bond yields falling as traders re-adjust for a potentially less aggressive Fed Reserve. I expect that the pressure down will hold through the Asian market session and the start of the European session and may push down into 103.800…hence the stronger Gold open. Longer term, the dollar will hold around the highs until data releases change traders sentiment with the next focus being Consumer Confidence Data tomorrow night around the start of the US session.

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SPI200 Index