Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 29/06/22
US Indexes opened well but it was just a good old fashion trap and then flush lower off the previous sessions highs. Traders did not take well to the Consumer Confidence data release as it was all one way action down from the open. The release came in a lot lower than expected as consumers showed concern over the high inflation levels and prices they have to deal with day to day. I feel that this is a major kick in the pants for stock market bulls!! Expectations are that economic growth will weaken significantly into the end of the year which will in turn weigh on the share market. The USD was bid higher and held the gains into the close while US Bonds found a safe have bid as share markets fell. Bitcoin is on the verge of breaking back below $20k to again break the hearts of crypto bulls and Oil edges higher to add to inflation worries. Aussie Retail Sales at 11:30am AEST, OPEC Meetings All Day, US GDP Data at 10:30pm and ECB’s Lagarde…BOEs Baily and the Feds Powell all speak around 11pm…must have some thing serious to say.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 55 points after the SPI200 fell over along with the US markets.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 84 pts to 6592
SP500 down 78.56 pts to 3821.55
NASDAQ Composite down 343.01 pts to 11181.54
Dow Jones down 491.27 pts to 30946.99
FTSE100 up 65.09 pts to 7323.41
DAX30 up 45.75 pts to 13231.82
GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $3.60 to $1821.20 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) down $0.0092 to $3.7568 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Aug) up $2.19 to $111.76 a barrel
CRB Index up 2.23 pts to 301.00
AUDUSD trading at 0.6906
EURUSD trading at 1.0521
GBPUSD trading at 1.2183
USDJPY trading at 136.1200
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.597 to 104.275
The SPI200/ASX200 rallied from the open of the European session to add to the days gains before turning south and giving all back into the US close. Watching to see how buyers react on the open around the 6583/6568 zones. Watching for an early flush as retails sell the open…and then will be looking for a higher low and squeeze on sellers. From there it will be about whether the bulls have any commitment to follow through. (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts). The DOW initially flushed the 31690 level to trap some buyers before dumping and moving down into 30915. I will be looking to see if buyers can hold the short term trend up in tact and support any flush lower. If price trades through 30675, then watch out for another run lower as longer term sellers pile into the action. The US Tech 100 is a lot like the DOW as price pushed down into 11685 and holds the short term uptrend in tact. If sellers push below 11685, then expect to see an unwind of long positions for a move lower. Hang Seng failed at 22400 in the overnight session after spiking into the level during the day. I expect that the 2250 zone will be key as to whether the market wants to continue higher or selloff lower. I will be watching for an early flush higher and then selling opportunities as the underlying index has extended into resistance. The Nikkei was choppy overnight after a move up during the day session. Like the Hang Seng, price also failed off resistance around 27155 and down into support zones. Watching the 26685 level on the open for a gauge of any further weakness. The DAX Index failed miserably off 13362 and may have more to come tonight when the European markets open and play catchup. The key level for today will be 13119 which will be broken if Asian markets take a turn for the worse. UK 100 Index is stronger than most as the 7274 level holds. Any break below this level and I will be looking for a lower high as buyers start to unwind long positions from 7000 and stop losses get triggered.
Cryptos remain on shaky ground as prices moved back down into support levels off lower highs. Bitcoin held 21130 and moved down into 20180 and looks set to push back below $20K and break the hearts and minds of new buyers. Ethereum also held a lower high at 1235 below the key 1273 zone. Watching for a move down into and potentially through 1131…which we may see later in the European/US session.
Spot Gold continues to be pressured lower as 1821 fails to hold. The lower high at 1829 may see an extended move down into 1815 and potentially 1808. The daily charts look set to hold a lower high much to the dismay of macro bulls…but price action is telling me we are heading lower. If the USD weakens then Gold will find some buyers. Crude Oil continued to edge higher as buyers pushed up through 110.65 and into the 112 zone. Momentum up is waning which may see some profit taking off 112 ahead of news out from the OPEC meetings today. USD Index held the 103.800 level recently and moved higher as price action continues to be range bound. After the disappointing Consumer Confidence news, I expect the USD to be supported so watching for an eventual push into highs around 104.985.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index