Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds. All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR THURSDAY 30/06/22
US Indexes had a very rangebound session after the previous days selloff. The focus was on speeches from US Fed Chair Powell, BOE Gov Bailey and ECB President Lagarde. They all agreed that inflation needed to be brought down quickly even if it will be a painful process. Inflation is at multi-decade highs globally and their fear is that higher prices will become entrenched and hurt economies. They all agreed that inflation should be prioritized over growth. The mood was reflected in the major index action as price action was caught in a rut. Traders will be digesting what this means to risk assets and the global macro picture. The USD kept pushing higher as US bond prices pushed up off lows during the US session. Focus tonight will be on the US Core PCE Price Index release at 10:30pm AEST for a gauge on inflation. In other data, US Unemployment is also out at 10:30pm AEST.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 20 points as the SPI200 held lower highs into the US close.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 1 pts to 6595
SP500 down 2.72 pts to 3818.83
NASDAQ Composite down 3.65 pts to 11177.89
Dow Jones up 82.32 pts to 31029.31
FTSE100 down 11.09 pts to 7312.32
DAX30 down 228.47 pts to 13003.35
GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $3.70 to $1817.50 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) down $0.0083 to $3.7717 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Aug) down $1.98 to $109.78 a barrel
CRB Index down 1.66 pts to 299.34
AUDUSD trading at 0.6879
EURUSD trading at 1.0442
GBPUSD trading at 1.2122
USDJPY trading at 136.5700
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.604 to 104.865
The SPI200/ASX200 were rangebound and choppy in overnight trading. Price held between the 6634 and 6583 levels on the SPI200 but seems to be under pressure and building for a potential move lower. Zooming out to the 30min chart, some lower highs are holding at 6735 and 6718 on the ASX200 CFD. This could lead to a decent unwind of buyers as they digest the potential for a more aggressive stance towards inflation. (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts). The DOW held between the 30883 lows and 31153 highs while choppy intraday traders around. Watching to see if the recent comments from Fed Reserves will bring in the sellers tonight for a move below 30883. The US Tech 100 was also choppy and the signs are not good for bulls. With price consolidating below 11685, I expect and swing down in momentum to trigger a selloff through 11575. The Hang Seng moved lower during the day session to hold the losses into the US close. Price grinded up from the days lows into 22050 which is not a good sign for bulls. I am watching for an opening flush higher to trap some buyers before a selloff. The Nikkei was choppy for the day session which flowed over into the European and US sessions. Price held above 26684 support which I expect to be tested and broken today as buyers are squeezed out. The DAX Index held lower highs overnight to push into potential support around 12955. Price held lower highs into the close so I expect to see an opening flush into 12955 before buyers provide some support as the DAX may have been oversold last night compared to the other major markets. UK 100 Index saw an initial spike lower below 7263 before a recovery back above the level. I feel that bears are setting up bulls and will look to pressure price from the open tonight as long at 7322 can hold.
Cryptos remain under pressure as prices on Bitcoin and Ethereum push into lows. Bitcoin is holding up above 19850 but still trending down. Price action looks like it may hold the 19850 area but will need to hold a higher low to be convincing enough to drag in new buyers. Ethereum is holding minor lower highs with the recent one at 1121. Like BTC, Ethereum may look to hold up off 1084 and momentum down fades and turns higher. Watching for a higher low on ETH.
Spot Gold continues to be choppy and very difficult to trade hence I am happy to remain on the sidelines until the action can become cleaner. The major flush up through and then dump below 1829 did not seem to be news or USD related so can only be attributed to algos hunting stop losses. Price is again hovering around lows at 1815 support which I expect to be tested. Crude Oil was moving higher into the US open when it turned on a dime and flushed lower. Price pushed through 110.82 and looks set to test into 108.32. If it breaks the level, then we could see a bigger unwind of longs. USD Index moved higher through the 104.970 zone as traders await the inflationary PCE Data release ahead of the US session tonight. Price action is extended so it will depend on the release to whether price can keep pushing higher or not. For now, price is being supported by expectations that Global Central Banks are finally admitting that they have an inflation problem and need to focus more on getting it down.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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