Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 5/07/22
US Indexes were closed for the 4th July Holiday so the action in overnight trading was well contained. Oil rallied off lows looking set to have another run into the 115 area and potentially higher. The USD moved up off lows during the European session and the flatlined into the close holding longer term gains above the 104.728 support zone. Traders will be awaiting FOMC minutes later in the week so I would expect the USD to hold above support until then. Aussie Dollar traders will be eagerly watching the RBA rate release and statement today for a clearer direction on interest rates as more builders go into administration and leave families with half built houses which will further pressure the industry. RBA Cash Rate today at 2:30pm AEST.
Expect that the US will start to focus on the coming earnings reports with a big focus on forward guidance as profit margins take a hit from higher inflation.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 5 points after the SPI200 floundered around the day sessions close with the US closed.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 1 pts to 6538
NASDAQ Composite closed
Dow Jones closed
FTSE100 up 64.00 pts to 7232.65
DAX30 down 39.65 pts to 12773.38
GOLD futures US session (Aug) up $6.80 to $1808.30 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) up $0.0138 to $3.5808 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Aug) up $2.23 to $110.66 a barrel
CRB Index closed
AUDUSD trading at 0.6870
EURUSD trading at 1.0427
GBPUSD trading at 1.2109
USDJPY trading at 135.7200
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.041 to 104.950
The SPI200/ASX200 had a very uneventful overnight session but did hold above 6506. The ASX may flounder today and hold below 6568 although waiting for direction tonight from the US. If we see a move up into 6568 on the open and then a higher low, I feel that we may see a few positive days as buyers are triggered into action. (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts). The DOW has opened strong and ramped into 31153 as US traders come back from a long weekend and market makers reposition themselves for the week. Will be watching for price action to hold around 31153 and ramp up through European trade or into the US open. The US Tech 100 has also opened strong and pushed and flushed (for now) the 11685 level. This will be the key level for me today and I expect we will have to wait to see if the level holds and market makers are looking to trap some buyers before a selloff or whether this will be the zone to work longs from. The Hang Seng edged its way higher after the Index closed and ended into 22005 resistance. If the markets are to see a stronger open, then I expect t see a flush into 22091 and potentially a move higher…especially the way price rejected a weak open on the index yesterday. The Nikkei has flushed up into 26420 ahead of the open. Price is holding higher lows so I will be watching to see if pullbacks continue to be supported. The DAX Index is set for a move higher as price action held 12745. Expecting to see a squeeze on sellers today and on the European open. UK 100 Index like the DAX, is set to be stronger into the Asian session as price has ramped up off 7222 in the last hour or so. The 7267 level is the focus today for either a retest and long or failure back below the level.
Cryptos were well contained over the weekend as prices hovered around the lows. Bitcoin is holding below the $20K mark which continues to make bulls nervous. The recent spike a few days ago would have dragged in some buyers and made holders happy…although this does not mean price is going higher. We will need more price action evidence that a rally is on the cards so I will be watching for a clear higher low above $19K. Ethereum is much the same and will need to clear through 1084 before a leg up can get going.
Spot Gold chopped around 1809 with the lack of direction into the USD. Price technically looks ready for a run up through 1814 but I would use tight risk as a rally would assume the USD is moving down which I do not expect (at least any major move lower in USD). The longer term EMA has flatlined so price could easily flush up through 1814 to trap buyers before a run lower. Crude Oil held up off 107.40 in the Asian and then European sessions to then move up through 109.33 and into 110.82. Watching to see if price holds 110.82 for a flush on buyers or whether the next target up is 115.00. I expect at least a squeeze on buyers before any new leg up. USD Index flushed down early and then bounced back up late in the European session. Expecting to see the USD hold above 104.728 and potentially push up into the 105.700 area ahead of FOMC. Traders will be awaiting the Feds Statement for a clearer direction on interest rates and hence the USD.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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