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Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 13/07/22
US Indexes fall over into the close as coming CPI numbers concern investors. The USD stood its ground to hold around the highs while Oil took a big hit to end well below the $100 mark. With the USD factoring in a more aggressive Fed and share markets factoring in a recession, we may see a sell the rumour and buy the fact move if CPI comes in weaker than expected tonight. US Bonds were largely unchanged although did edge lower into the US close as I suspect buyers took some risk off the table. Copper continues to get punished as price again extends into a major support area as the USD holds the highs. There are a lot of markets linked directly to the ebb and flow of the USD so any unwind into the Dollar will see some good moves, especially a lot of these commodities. NZD Cash Rate 12:00pm AEST, UK GDP at 4pm AEST and US CPI at 10:30pm AEST.
Expect that the US will start to focus on the coming earnings reports with a big focus on forward guidance as profit margins take a hit from higher inflation.
The ASX200 is expected to open FLAT after the SPI200 moved between gains and losses in the overnight session. The late move lower in the US may cap buyers on the open of the ASX.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures flat to 6506
SP500 down 35.63 pts to 3818.80
NASDAQ Composite down 107.87 pts to 11264.73
Dow Jones down 192.51 pts to 30981.33
FTSE100 up 13.27 pts to 7209.86
DAX30 up 73.04 pts to 12905.48
GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $6.90 to $1724.80 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) down $0.1715 to $3.2590 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Aug) down $8.25 to $95.84 a barrel
CRB Index down 11.76 pts to 276.01
AUDUSD trading at 0.6759
EURUSD trading at 1.0035
GBPUSD trading at 1.1888
USDJPY trading at 136.8400
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.159 to 107.988
CLICK HERE FOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT TODAY (AEST) 13/07/22
The SPI200/ASX200 was heading higher in the European session until the US sold off late in the session and took the SPI200 with it. Price reacted up off 6483 and bulls will be hoping for another random ramp on the ASX open. Longer term, we may be seeing a lower high build which points to lower prices but for today, I expect price to hold up off 6483 and below 6548. (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts). The DOW technical picture is a bit of a mess with support around 309100and then 30800 and resistance around 31350. I expect to see price hold between these levels into the CPI release and would not trust any big move either higher or lower. We may test into the support just to trap and flush some traders. The US Tech 100 is also a bit messy but is bias down for now. Resistance is holding the action down around 11980 with broader support around 11740. I would expect price to edge higher today but this will depend on how the Asian markets play out. Would not expect a lot ahead of the CPI release. The Hang Seng held up off support and the days session lows around 20765. Price is trending lower in search of buyers for now and I expect we may see more of the same today. Will be ideally looking for a opening flush higher and then a move down through 20765 and into 20602. The Nikkei rallied off the days lows around 26275 and failed off resistance around 26530 into the US close. Expecting to see a lower high hold and price to flush lower through 26275 although support may be coming in on the underlying index. The DAX Index ramped up on the US open which as unusual considering the US opened and generally went lower. Expecting price to hold a lower high and squeeze below 12774 to trap buyers before a move back up UK 100 Index flushed above 7205 before failing lower so we could see sellers start to jump into the action at the start of the European session in anticipation of a selloff. Watching for a lower high and squeeze down as the UK100 has been held up ‘too well’ ahead of the CPI release.
Cryptos continue to hold lower highs and have extended the losses into major support areas and previous major lows. This will again be making bulls nervous as the CPI numbers could throw a curve ball. Either way, one side will give up soon and we will see a clear move either through support or resistance. Bitcoin is again below the $20K levels and hovering around 19330 lows which may bring in some bargain hunters. Ethereum is holding below 1045 and could extend down into 1010.
Spot Gold remains un-tradable and linked to the USD which remains stubbornly high. CPI may change all that tonight and there is a lot of shorts built up into gold that could unwind fast…but not looking at longs until CPI and price action holds a higher low. For now, I expect the momentum down to continue. Crude Oil took a bit hit last night as price holds a daily lower high and longer term buyers unwind longs. Price easily moved down through $100 and into lows around 95.50. I will need to see a higher low off the level prior to a long and ideally for price to flush below 95.50 and then bounce to signal a short squeeze. USD Index is holding the recent highs awaiting the CPI release and a clearer (potentially) direction for inflation and interest rate rises. Traders will be watching to get a gauge of whether inflation has peaked. If CPI comes in less than expected, we could see an unwind into USD and a good move lower….all will be revealed tonight.
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SPI200 Index
ASX200 Index
DOW Index
US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
Nikkei Index
DAX Index
UK100 Index
Spot Gold
Crude Oil
USD Index
Bitcoin
Ethereum
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