Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR FRIDAY 15/07/22
US Indexes again took a big hit on the open to follow on from a negative European session although, intraday, it was all upside during the session in the US. Prices were supported from the open as with the previous session, to make back the earlier losses and end slightly in the red. Again, I expect that this was more due to a lack of liquidity which is currently in markets and algos taking the path of least resistance to squeeze out sellers. I expect to see Europe play catchup tonight from the open as the DAX and UK100 have closed around support levels before the US rally. The USD continues to pressure into highs as PPI data also beat expectations on the back of the strong CPI numbers to add fuel to the inflation fire. Traders had to digest disappointing earnings and warnings of economic slowdown from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. I feel that there is some intraday bargain hunters providing support as they expect the Fed will be forced into a more aggressive stance to contain inflation which may mean a low is getting put into the markets. China GDP and Retail Sales at 12pm AEST, US Retail Sales at 10:30pm and US Consumer Sentiment at 12am AEST.
Expect that the US will start to focus on the coming earnings reports with a big focus on forward guidance as profit margins take a hit from higher inflation.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 55 points after a rough European session weighed on the SPI200.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 52 pts to 6489
SP500 down 11.40 pts to 3790.38
NASDAQ Composite up 3.61 pts to 11251.19
Dow Jones down 142.62 pts to 30630.17
FTSE100 down 116.56 pts to 7039.81
DAX30 down 236.66 pts to 12519.66
GOLD futures US session (Aug) down $29.70 to $1705.80 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) down $0.0950 to $3.2275 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Aug) down $0.52 to $95.78 a barrel
CRB Index down 4.67 pts to 273.26
AUDUSD trading at 0.6750
EURUSD trading at 1.0018
GBPUSD trading at 1.1823
USDJPY trading at 138.9800
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.719 to 108.475
The SPI200/ASX200 found sellers from the start of the European session and moved down below support into new lows. Price did recover once the US opened and ramped up but the uptrend has been broken which may drag in sellers in coming sessions. Watching for an early flush lower and then lower highs to hold. I am not discounting anther ramp from the open off an early flush down potentially into 6472. (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts) The DOW saw a V-shaped recovery as the lower volume means that intraday traders and algos can push the market. We may be finding a base in the near term which may tempt some buyers back into the market although the longer term trend down remains in tact. Watching the 30777 area for sellers to potentially cap the action. The US Tech 100 saw a good bounce off the previous sessions spike low around 11490. The intraday action once the US opened, was straight up into the close so the double bottom (at 11490) may mean buyers support dips. For now, I want to see if 11830 sees some profit taking and squeeze lower. The Hang Seng moved lower in the European and US sessions after a choppy Asian market session. Price found buyers at 20422 and resistance into the close at 20525. Expecting the move down may run out of steam but the underlying Index is holding lower lows. The Nikkei had a strong run higher during the Asian session which was defended during the European selloff. Price ended at the days highs around 26760. I expect that the open will see some bullish action and a flush higher but I will be looking for some later selling to squeeze out recent buyers. The DAX Index flushed into 12455 during European trade and then managed to recover some of the losses into the US close. Expecting a push into 12655 where I will look for a squeeze lower off a lower high as the momentum up fades. UK 100 Index moved much the same as the DAX as it held 7015 support. Watching for a reaction lower off the 7100 zone or potentially a higher low off 7060.
Cryptos had a better session thanks to the US ramp higher. Once again, Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading like a risk asset rather than a hedge or save haven against the USD rally than many have been pushing. Bitcoin has reacted lower off 20650 so I am looking for a grind lower and then a higher low for a rally as price goes bid to offer longer term. Ethereum is much the same as I am watching for buyers off 1169 and a continuation move up.
Spot Gold had another rough day for gold bugs as the Daily price action weighs on bulls (Trading View Post Gold Daily Selloff). With the momentum down in oversold territory, we may see a squeeze higher although the daily trend down is in tact potentially looking to extend below 1700 into 1980 daily support. Crude Oil flushed lower before bouncing right back above 95.50. The capitulation move may trigger more buyers for a corrective move up so watching to see if buyers support 95.50 for a higher low. USD Index again pressured higher with an early move up through 109.00 before failing. I expect that there will only be a break lower once the US Fed Reserve shows their hand on rate rises. For now, expecting to see pullbacks supported.
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US Tech 100 Index
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