Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 19/07/22
US Indexes could not add to Fridays gains to sustain the upward momentum which is a bit of a hallmark of bear markets. The US opened strong on the back of a positive European session and ‘less negative than expected’ bank earnings, but the Indexes could not hold the gains and faded into the close. An Apple report said that the company plans to slow hiring and spending next year which also weighed on the market ahead of earnings from big tech next week. Oil rallied while gold gave back all the gains from a positive European session as the USD rallied off lows. I expect we will see more swings and roundabouts ahead as the rate rising cycle weighs on earnings and growth. Traders will need to be a lot more selective or short term as the market tries to find a base. Aussie Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 11:30am AEST, RBA Deputy Gov Bullock Speaks 12pm AEST and BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 1am AEST.
Expect that the US will start to focus on the coming earnings reports with a big focus on forward guidance as profit margins take a hit from higher inflation.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 25 points as the SPI200 followed the US lower after a positive European session.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 21 pts to 6560
SP500 down 32.31 pts to 3830.85
NASDAQ Composite down 92.37 pts to 11360.05
Dow Jones down 215.65 pts to 31072.61
FTSE100 up 64.23 pts to 7223.24
DAX30 up 95.09 pts to 12959.81
GOLD futures US session (Aug) up $6.60 to $1710.20 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) up $0.0817 to $3.3157 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Aug) up $5.01 to $102.60 a barrel
CRB Index up 8.90 pts to 286.54
AUDUSD trading at 0.6813
EURUSD trading at 1.0145
GBPUSD trading at 1.1949
USDJPY trading at 138.1200
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.631 to 107.280
The SPI200/ASX200 moved higher through European trade before being sent straight back down in the US session. Price held resistance on the SPI200 at 6618 and ended into support around 6559. I expect that price will flush lower on the open and then potentially find some buyers for a move up off 6559. If the move down extends then the next support comes in around 6511 (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts). The DOW was all one way action down from the start of the US session after price flushed 31480 and then failed. Price is in no mans land at the moment so we may expect continuation down into 30795. If not, then I am watching for a minor higher low to build for a squeeze higher. The US Tech 100 also failed after an initial flush of resistance ahead of the US open. Price pushed down into support around 11832 which is reacted up off into the close. Watching to see if the level can hold a retest and then squeeze higher into 11980. The Hang Seng rallied hard yesterday on China Central Bank comments that their ‘housing market will not crash’…what else were they going to say. I feel that the move up was over done and we may see some profit taking of longs today so watching for an early flush higher and then failure. The Nikkei will roughly open around Fridays index close or slightly higher after a holiday yesterday. Watching the 26880 level for opening action and a potential flush, trap and bounce. The DAX Index drifted lower off 13015 resistance in the US session. Watching to see if buyers provide some support into 12810 for a long or whether the trend down continues. For now the momentum is down in search of a support zone. UK 100 Index also faded lower off highs around 7269 into the US close. I will be looking for the momentum down to ease and for a higher low and squeeze on shorts. I feel that the bounce up has got more to go…the underlying index will open lower which may tempt bulls into the opening action.
Cryptos added to the recent gains with a move up as Bitcoin pushed up through 21550 and Ethereum held above 1455. ETH looks set to continue higher with no clear resistance in its path for now. BTC did reject a push into 22870 and is now reacting up off 21550. I do think BTC looks primed for another flush lower so the 21550 level will be key today.
Spot Gold had an early push higher as the USD flushed lower but was then quick to give up the gains as the USD bounced back. Gold remains locked to the USD for now and looks set to push down through 1723 into 1685 daily support. If the USD continues lower then I am watching for a squeeze higher. Crude Oil rallied to play catchup with the share market rally from Friday. Price extended up into 102.37 where I expect to see some profit taking as the longer term downtrend weighs on the bulls. USD Index spiked lower into the start of the US session but then found buyers as the share market moved lower. I expect price will flush lower but may start to hold a higher low for a squeeze back up again. The anchor to the move down is at 107.611 and support is at 106.760.
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US Tech 100 Index
Hang Seng Index
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