Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR TUESDAY 26/07/22
US Indexes were well contained ahead of the FOMC statement and expected 0.75% rate hike. US Bond yields edged higher while the USD moved lower while higher oil prices provided some support to the Indexes. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Yellen said that while US growth was slowing, a recession was not ‘inevitable’…but what else was she going to say…markets always have the last word. Expect that the Nasdaq was lower as traders braced for big earnings this week and as yields edged higher…most are just in a holding pattern until the earnings and other data releases play out and the markets make a move. The days action was dominated by intraday traders and algos in a relatively thin market. German Ifo data showed business morale fell as high energy prices and gas shortages push Europe’s largest economy towards a potential recession. I expect that traders will continue in the holding pattern until the FOMC where they will be watching to see if recent weaker economic data weighs on the Feds Hawkish rate outlook. BOJ Core CPI Data at 3pm AEST and US Consumer Confidence Data at 12am AEST.
Market Price Action is still choppy as traders await FOMC and US Tech earnings this week in what could be a volatile period.
The ASX200 is expected to open UP 25/30 points after the SPI200 ramped higher in the European session and held the gains into the US close.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures up 24 pts to 6709
SP500 up 5.21 pts to 3966.84
NASDAQ Composite down 51.44 pts to 11782.67
Dow Jones up 90.75 pts to 31990.04
FTSE100 up 29.93 pts to 7306.30
DAX30 down 43.36 pts to 13210.32
GOLD futures US session (AUG) down $9.20 to $1718.20 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) up $0.0165 to $3.3660 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) up $2.00 to $96.70 a barrel
CRB Index up 3.60 pts to 284.76
AUDUSD trading at 0.6959
EURUSD trading at 1.0221
GBPUSD trading at 1.2048
USDJPY trading at 136.6600
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) down 0.286 to 106.335
The SPI200/ASX200 rallied above 6698 early in the European session and held above the level into the US close. Price found resistance into 6718 so watching for an opening drive into 6718 potentially off a flush lower. (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts) The DOW was range bound in the US session holding between 32031 and 31860. Price look to be being pressured lower but I do expect to hold around highs tonight. Would like to see a flush lower into 31705 but would not expect a lot more ahead of key data releases. The US Tech 100 moved lower through 12330 and looks set to test into 12220 today. I expect that the 12220 area will hold and find buying support at least ahead of Consumer Confidence data tonight. The Hang Seng held the 20338 area in the day session yesterday and then rallied into 20675 which it held into the US close. The underlying Index could be setting to hold a higher low but the trend is still down. I feel that the opening drive will be important for a directional bias. Ideally would like to see 20675 flushed and then hold for a short but will be bearing in mind the underlying indexes potential for a run up. The Nikkei saw higher lows and lower highs as price contracted in an uncertain market. Watching for a test into 27655 and for the level to hold the flush for a higher low. If price can not get back above the zone, then watching for a lower high and push down towards 27460. The DAX Index held above 13160 and below 13245. The momentum is down so we may see more of an unwind when Europe opens later. Watching for a flush and bounce off 13160 or potentially down around 13125. UK 100 Index managed to add to recent gains and push up above 7293 but the price action does not look too strong. Watching to see if buyers hold price above 7293 with the anchor for the move up held at 7282.
Cryptos were pressured lower with Bitcoin and Ethereum heading lower. BTC is into support around 21550 while ETH is pushing into support around 1455. Watching both support levels to see if we get a higher low up off the level or continuation down through the zones.
Spot Gold had a choppy session as price kicked higher during European trade before falling back down into the US close. I expect that the coming FOMC statement will weigh on risk appetite as the USD will move. Looking for a lush lower below 1717 to squeeze out some buyers. Crude Oil rallied up off 94.65 lows but found sellers just below the 97.15 area. Watching 96.83 to see if we get another lower high or whether buyers will look to rally price higher. With momentum slowing, looking for a minor lower high and short. USD Index pushed through 106.429 before bouncing back above the level into the US close. I expect price to hold above into the FOMC but expecting more chop. Consumer Confidence data out tonight could bring in some volatility.
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US Tech 100 Index
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