Charts Marked with anticipated entry setups in YELLOW and ideal setup in GREEN on market opens. There will be many possible scenarios shown so it is key to work off major levels and higher lows/lower highs once the price action unfolds.
PROCESS IS KEY….DEFINE LEVELS – MARK EXPECTED PRICE ACTION – TRADE THE SETUPS
All prices refer to the CFD pricing from the charts below off TD365.com. Opening times (AEST) are 10am SPI/N225, 11:15/30am HSI, 4/5pm DAX and UK100 and 10:30/11:30pm DOW and USTech100.
OVERNIGHT MARKET SNAPSHOT FOR WEDNESDAY 27/07/22
US Indexes were lower from the open after Consumer Confidence data came in weaker than expected triggering selling into the tech heavy Nasdaq. Walmart slashed its profit forecast which also pressured shares lower ahead of the important FOMC statement on interest rates. Walmart is seen as a barometer for the health and willingness of the Consumer to spend, traders are showing more concern for a slowing economy. The USD found some safe haven buying although it could also be due to a short squeeze as traders rebalance ahead of FOMC. Traders continue to be short minded and unwilling to hold risk longer term as the trading environment remains mixed and uncertain. Traders are watching for a 0.75% hike in interest rates and looking for a change in rhetoric with regards to economic data…ie may say to be less aggressive if data continues to be weak…which could trigger bulls into action. Aussie CPI data at 11:30am AEST, US Durable Goods data at 10:30pm AEST and FOMC at 4am AEST.
Market Price Action will be tough today as traders await FOMC. This will translate to chop into the USD and therefore currencies and Gold. Share traders I expect will be looking to just manage risk today not add risk.
The ASX200 is expected to open DOWN 30 Points after negative data weighed on the US markets and dragged the overnight SPI200 lower.
SPI200 (Sep) overnight futures down 36 pts to 6675
SP500 down 45.79 pts to 3921.05
NASDAQ Composite down 220.10 pts to 11562.57
Dow Jones down 228.50 pts to 31761.54
FTSE100 down 0.02 pts to 7306.28
DAX30 down 113.39 pts to 13096.93
GOLD futures US session (AUG) down $3.70 to $1715.40 an ounce
COPPER futures US session (Comex Sep) up $0.0375 to $3.3920 a pound
OIL futures US Session (Nymex Sep) down $1.72 to $94.98 a barrel
CRB Index up 1.74 pts to 286.50
AUDUSD trading at 0.6940
EURUSD trading at 1.0117
GBPUSD trading at 1.2031
USDJPY trading at 136.9200
USD Index US Session (ICE Sep) up 0.720 to 107.075
The SPI200/ASX200 rallied early in the European session before taking a hit lower after the US Consumer Confidence data release. Price held up off 6660 which I expect to see hold today. Major Indexes have had a big pump higher since the SPI200 has been closed. The move seems to be an engineered move in low liquidity to hold major support levels. Watching the SPI200 for a squeeze higher. (Refer to the members area for updated ASX200 charts) The DOW held up off 31705 thanks to a rally after the US close. Price action is being held down below 31930. I do not hold much hope for a trend day ahead of FOMC and expect choppy action between 31705 and 31930. The US Tech 100 flatlined in Asian markets yesterday and then took a hit lower after the Data release. Price has since bounced back as bulls signal their intention to support price ahead of FOMC. I do not expect much action today, just algos running minor levels to keep retail traders busy. The Hang Seng rallied hard during the Asian market session but then fell apart in overnight trading. This sets the underlying index up for a weak open down around 280pts. Watching for an early flush lower and then higher lows to hold. The Nikkei was down in overnight trade but has opened up and rallied 120 pts off the lows as major Indexes were ramped higher. The spike has pushed price back above 27530 which will be a focus for potential support today. Watching for an early pop into 27682 where I will be looking for a lower high. The DAX Index was choppy after an early flush below 13145. Price found good buying support into 13055 and has since rallied 90 pts after the US close. Watching to see if buyers support a pullback above 13055. UK 100 Index held a flush into 7282 and has since spiked along with other major Indexes into the start of the Asian market session. Expecting to see sellers around 7353 and buyers into 7293 for a generally range bound and choppy session into FOMC.
Cryptos drifted lower yesterday as bulls fail to get a strong foothold into the action. This is a sign that the Euphoric nature of cryptos have gone and it is trading as another risk asset. Watching Bitcoin for a test into 21550 where I would expect a lower high to hold. For Ethereum, watching for price to lift up off 1255 potentially into 1455…of course this will depend on markets ahead of FOMC.
Spot Gold saw price edge back into 1717 support which it held well considering the ramp up into the USD. Price looks primed to continue the daily squeeze higher off major support around 1685. Expect that there will be a lot of traps and squeezes ahead of FOMC which will bring in USD volatility…just do not know which way yet. Crude Oil lifted into 98.66 where it met sellers pushing price down into the US close. Watching to see how buyers react around 94.64 to see if buyers can hold price up…but suspect that weaker economic data will weigh on the action. USD Index rallied after Consumer Confidence data came in weaker than expected. Was a good opportunity to squeeze out some sellers ahead of FOMC. Watching the 107.282 level today as price extended into the level and could rollover but do expect price to be contained.
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US Tech 100 Index
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